Streaming Defenses: Week 14 Targets

Dec 03, 2019

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As discussed p reviously, we are rolling out a new-and-improved model this season for projecting fantasy defenses. This model focuses on the most predictable elements of defense scoring: points allowed, sacks and interceptions. To project points in each of those areas, we rely on the Vegas lines, quarterback history of interceptions and the offensive and defense history of producing sacks. Below, we will look at what those elements say for Week 14.

Other Week 14 Streaming Articles: QB | TE | K

Looking Backward

With some of the worst teams in the league coming up with surprising wins, most of our picks underperformed last week.

The Panthers had five sacks but no interceptions. Worse, they gave up 29 points, nearly two touchdowns more than Vegas expected. They scored only four points from the predictable elements, versus 8.14 expected.

That was better than the Eagles, however, who gave up a stunning 37 points to the Dolphins, when Vegas expected under 19. Even with sack and interception totals close to expectation, the Eagles only ended up with one point from the predictable elements, versus 7.22 expected.

The Jets allowed the Bengals to get their first win of the season. They only allowed 22 points, which is above Vegas's expectation of 18.5, but nowhere near as bad as with the other two picks. However, they had only one sack and no INTs and ended up with just one point from the predictable elements, versus 6.41 expected.

The lone bright spot was our last pick, the Packers. They had no sacks, but with three interceptions and just 13 points allowed, they ended up with 10 points from the predictable elements, much more than the 6.22 we expected.