DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 4

Sep 26, 2019

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Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I use the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation on how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection, and positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field. Note that every position may not be included in each section.

Players to Be Overweight On

QB Russell Wilson ($7,800 FD/$6,100 FD) @ Cardinals

Wilson will probably approach his ceiling ownership projection this week but he will be my highest-owned quarterback against a Cardinals team that forces their opponents into a fast pace and filter work to the passing game—Arizona ranks fourth in schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) allowed to opposing running backs but 31st against quarterbacks. Wilson ranks fourth in fantasy points per pass attempt and has run a fair amount this season, giving him more options to hit a ceiling game. This game is stackable on both sides so Wilson is worth rostering in up to 15% of your lineups.