Streaming Defenses: Week 5 Targets

Oct 01, 2019

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As discussed p reviously, we are rolling out a new-and-improved model this season for projecting fantasy defenses. This model focuses on the most predictable elements of defense scoring: points allowed, sacks and interceptions. To project points in each of those areas, we rely on the Vegas lines, quarterback history of interceptions and the offensive and defense history of producing sacks. Below, we will look at what those elements say for Week 5.

Other Week 5 Streaming Articles: QB | TE | K

Looking Backward

As usual, our top projection went to the team facing the Dolphins and they did not disappoint. The Chargers allowed only 10 points and had five sacks and an interception, giving another great score in the three predictable elements of fantasy defense scoring.

The Broncos, who faced Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars, gave up more points than expected (26 versus 17.5). However, five sacks gave them a score just about in line with our projection.

The Steelers crushed our projection. They had eight sacks, an interception and gave up only three points. Altogether, that gave them the second-highest score from the predictable elements. That's great for a team that was available in 80% of all Yahoo! leagues.

Our final team, the Colts, disappointed. They allowed the Raiders to score 31 points and had only a single sack.

Overall, Week 4 was much like prior weeks: of our three recommendations, one essentially matched our prediction, one crushed and one disappointed, so picking one of our recommendations at random would give a two-in-three chance of a solid score. However, this week, like last week, the underperforming recommendation was the one with the lowest projection of three, so if more than one of our recommendations are available on the waiver wire, it is probably worthwhile to grab the highest projected option, rather than picking at random.