Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 6 Targets

Oct 08, 2019

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Week 5 is another example of why we watch football. Defensive touchdowns. The Superdome rocking. Patrick Mahomes on in prime time. Despite having only two afternoon games, football held our attention from the first kickoff in London to the final down in San Francisco. The scores just kept coming. Kirk Cousins eclipsed 300 passing yards! But now that the action has died down, we turn back to the matchups, turn back to the process, and look ahead to Week 6.

Other Week 6 Streaming Articles: TE | K | D/ST

Week 6 starts the bye-week gauntlet. Except for Week 8, every week until the fantasy playoffs will feature at least 4 teams on bye. It’ll loosen up our streaming requirements giving us a wider selection. However, we’ll still stick to the same flow and identify the plays as the injuries, opponents, and potential game scripts indicate.

Week 5 Review

Let’s take a quick look back at Week 5’s picks:

Brissett – 10.9 points (QB20)
Andy Dalton – 19.0 points (QB10)
Kirk Cousins – 20.5 points (QB9)
Joe Flacco – 8.0 points (QB25)

Similar hit rate to Week 4. Brissett’s rushing touchdown saved his day as the Colts really leaned into establishing the run. They passed at a season-low 43.9% as they toppled the Chiefs. A run-heavy approach was in the range of outcomes, but that assumed the Colts had the lead. Indianapolis’ switch to man defense kept Patrick Mahomes at bay allowing Brissett to control the game flow via Marlon Mack. Dalton got there after ending the first half with less than 100 yards of total offense and the ‘squeaky wheel’ narrative played out for Kirk Cousins and the Vikings. Joe Flacco started off hot with a 70-yard touchdown to Courtland Sutton but lost a fumble and an interception that hamstrung what would have been a productive day.

We missed out on Teddy Bridgewater lighting up the Superdome. The Saints were at home with a 24.5-implied point total, but his intermediate and deep passing was a concern. In Weeks 2-4, at least 80% of his passes were 10 air yards or fewer. That rate dropped to 70.6% in Week 5. As he’s appeared to be more relaxed in the offense, we can look to Bridgewater for optimal matchups as Drew Brees gets closer to returning.

Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed

Next, let’s visit 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed ranks updated for Week 6. Injuries and high-scoring offenses have begun to take their toll. With a few weeks of data, we can begin to target these teams in the future. Notable rankings for defensive units include:

ATL falls 8 spots to #31 (23.2 aFPA)
CLE falls 6 spots to #21 (18.8 aFPA)
PIT rises 8 spots to #2 (10.2 aFPA)
NO rises 9 spots to #22 (18.9 aFPA)

Atlanta’s defensive injuries have caused their secondary to become a weekly fantasy target. The Falcons have allowed over 250 passing yards per game with Deshaun Watson dropping 426 yards in Week 6. Kyler Murray gets them in Week 6, but we’ll monitor their matchups going forward. On the flip side, Pittsburgh is now ranked third in the league in sacks. Their ability to generate pressure will make streaming against them difficult and will be reflected in the recommendations moving forward.

Key Defensive Injuries

Finally, we’ll review injuries along with the guidelines that will be used each week to find viable options on the waiver wire:

Only quarterbacks with no more than a 45% ownership in Yahoo leagues considered.
Ancillary metrics and game conditions (e.g. defensive ranking, weather) will be factored into the analysis.
Positive matchups for all pass catchers to be considered.
4for4 rankings should always be consulted for league-specific decisions.

Tony Jefferson (Ravens, Knee) – The seven-year vet tore his ACL during the fourth quarter on a pass intended for Nick Vannett. Earl Thomas intercepted the pass, but Jefferson grabbed Vannett on his way down causing a penalty. It’s been noted that Jefferson was the defensive player receiving communications from the sideline. He’s one of their most important players and his loss couldn’t have come at a worse time. The Ravens’ defense (18.3 aFPA) hasn’t put together a solid performance since Week 1. While they host Andy Dalton in Week 6, there should be legitimate concerns with their defense lacking and offense starting to lag.

De’Vante Bausby (Broncos, Neck) – After losing Bradley Chubb in Week 4, the Broncos (11.7 aFPA) lose another starter to injury. The AAF convert quickly worked his way into Denver’s starting rotation but was injured by another Broncos’ defensive player against the Chargers. The Broncos gutted out the win, but their injuries will pose less of an issue for opposing offense (hosting Kansas City in Week 7).

Other Notable Injuries: Darnell Savage (Packers, Ankle), Za’Darius Smith (Packers, Knee), Mark Barron (Lineback, Hamstring), Akiem Hicks (Bears, Elbow), Chris Milton (Titans, Calf), Tramaine Brock (Cardinals, Shoulder), Ronnie Harrison (Jaguars, Neck)