Expert Mock Draft Recap: 12-Team PPR Superflex (July 2020)

As we approach the start of NFL Training Camp in the coming week and continue to migrate towards fantasy football draft season, 4for4 collected some of the greatest minds in the industry for a Mock Draft. This draft was conducted as a 12-team full-PPR league with 16 rounds. The starting lineup consisted of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 1 Superflex position (QB/RB/WR/TE). The draft order was as follows:

Be sure to give our participants a follow on Twitter by clicking their username above!

Note: This draft began on July 5 and ADP reflects data from July 5-July 22.

It's been noted in each of the industry mocks preceding mine; these industry mocks tend to reflect overall trends in ADP that we see within the general fantasy football community. You'll note throughout this Superflex mock that even despite the fact that quarterbacks are prioritized more highly, we'll still see similar positional ADP across the board.

The most valuable trends we may see here are those that indicate value. Which assets have fallen beyond their average draft position? Who has the best opportunity to outperform their average draft position? These are the players that will help you win your fantasy football leagues.

Rounds 1-2

Values

RB Derrick Henry, Titans (ADP RB6; Drafted RB8)

Picking up the value of Derrick Henry two spots behind his ADP might not seem like much. Considering the question marks surrounding the two backs drafted ahead of him, however, it’s a bargain. Fresh off of a four-year/$50 million extension, Henry is once again in-line for a workhorse role in a run-heavy offensive scheme. Henry ranked fifth in total touches, fourth in yards from scrimmage and second in touchdowns. Drafted ahead of him were potential-holdout Dalvin Cook and question-mark Kenyan Drake, both who can easily project for fewer touches in 2020.

Reaches

RB Kenyan Drake, Cardinals (ADP RB13; Drafted RB7)

After the Cardinals acquired Kenyan Drake in exchange for a conditional 2020 NFL Draft pick, an injury to starter David Johnson quickly showcased the payoff. In an eight-game stretch to finish the season, Drake was on pace for 302 total touches, 1,628 yards from scrimmage and 16 total touchdowns. No Adam Gase? No problem. Drake is a running back that poses high-upside in fantasy football leagues, but the beauty is in the low draft acquisition. Kenyan Drake has yet to exceed 220 total touches in an NFL season yet boasts two back-to-back seasons with 1,000+ yards from scrimmage. I would just prefer to draft him at a discount given those question marks.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs (ADP RB17; Drafted RB12)

He may be this year’s rookie-class darling, but at an RB1 price tag, it’s hard to imagine Clyde Edwards-Helaire outperforming himself in 2020. After being personally selected by Patrick Mahomes as the future back of the Chiefs, it's difficult not to buy-in. Though the role of a rookie running back may produce fewer hurdles than those of a rookie wideout, it still needs to be noted that this was not a typical off-season. The NFL has eliminated the standard four pre-season games that provide rookies an opportunity to acclimate to NFL game pace and Damien Williams may have averaged 2.85 yards per carry on 108 of 111 of his rushing attempts in 2019, but his familiarity with the offense can't be understated.

Rounds 3-4

Values

RB Aaron Jones, Packers (ADP RB9; Drafted RB14)

In one season Matt LaFleur assumed his post as Head Coach of the Green Bay Packers, we’ve seen a shift in offensive scheme. What once was an offense led by Aaron Rodger's rocketship-Hail-Mary-arm, now has a foundation of pound-the-football mentality. From 2018 to 2019, the Packers saw a 10.4% decrease in pass attempts while noting a 23.4% increase in team rush attempts. The Packers drafted bruiser A.J. Dillon with the 62nd pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, and with that came plenty of question marks regarding Jones' value as a top-tier RB.

WR Mike Evans, Buccaneers (ADP WR7; Drafted WR12)

The 2020 NFL Season brings about a new era for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- the TB-squared revolution. Tom Brady supplants Jameis Winston in an offense with two top-five wide receivers, while simultaneously recruiting future-Hall-of-Famer Rob Gronkowski into the mix to catch copious amounts of touchdowns. The concern that Evans won't be utilized in the same fashion is real. Winston's 10.9-yard average depth of target may not feel like much when compared to Brady's 8.0, but Evans' performance speaks for itself. Evans is just one of eight wideouts since the year 2000 to accumulate more than 7,000 receiving yards within his first six NFL seasons. The others? Not bad company.

Evans is a perennial WR1 drafted at the new quarterback discount. Though Evans may not be targeted as deeply or as often, his target quality should increase immensely with Brady under center. He is all-but-guaranteed to hit 1,000 receiving yards once again.

Reaches

WR Allen Robinson, Bears (ADP WR12; Drafted WR7)

Let us all be clear -- Allen Robinson is a very talented wide receiver. He has showcased his ability time and time again with poor quarterback play, from Blake Bortles to Mitch Trubisky. Robinson finished the 2019 season with 153 targets, ranking second-highest in target total in the NFL. Moving forward, the biggest question mark for Robinson may just be whether or not he sees as much opportunity with a more competent quarterback under center. The first instinct of a quarterback in desperate straights? Throw it to the first read. If a Chicago QB can get through their first read, I just can't be as confident in the volume.

WR Odell Beckham Jr., Browns (ADP WR14; Drafted WR8)

Odell Beckham Jr. hasn't truly been the OBJ you hoped for in your fantasy football leagues for some time now. Despite his 1,000 receiving yards in the 2019 NFL Season, Beckham Jr. ranked 25th in fantasy points per game. It's... not great. Beckham is coming fresh-off of his first season in a brand new offense with a new (and young) quarterback under center. Though the potential is there, OBJ drafted as the WR8 may just be his ceiling in the coming season (even if I was the one who drafted him there).

Rounds 5-8

Values

RB Devin Singletary, Bills (ADP RB21; Drafted RB28)

The Bills coaching staff has already come out to say that Moss will assume a Frank Gore-type role in the offense. With Moss projecting for early-down and goal-line work, where does that leave the-now second-year back? Singletary was slow to work up a full carry load in his rookie season, first surpassing 70% of offensive snaps in Week 11. From that point on racked up the seventh-most offensive snaps among running backs. The problem is that this surplus of snaps didn't translate to elite fantasy production. In this six-week span, Singletary ranked as the RB25 in PPR leagues, and the reasons are simple: his average of just three targets per game and his zero total touchdowns. He's due for some scores in 2020, regardless of Moss' presence, and if we can draft him as the RB28, he's bound to pay dividends early on in your fantasy football leagues.

WR Courtland Sutton, Broncos (ADP WR17; Drafted WR25)

The Broncos loaded up on offensive weapons for soon-to-be-sophomore quarterback Drew Lock in the 2020 NFL Draft. Now the young acclaimed-stud and pseudo-rapper is ready to take the league by storm with Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler, Melvin Gordon and more under his belt ready to take receptions to the house. Despite the myriad of receiving weapons collected in the 2020 offseason, Sutton remains the uncontested WR1 within the offense. He enters his third season as a veteran who provides Drew Lock a familiar face and should be an easy "lock" for 120+ targets and 1,000 receiving yards.

QB Baker Mayfield, Browns (ADP QB14; Drafted QB20)

Baker Mayfield may have already thrown for a record with 27 passing touchdowns in his rookie season, but the fun seems to have stopped there. In his second season under center, Mayfield threw five fewer touchdowns and seven more interceptions despite playing three more games. Former Head Coach Freddie Kitchens didn't exactly lead an awe-inspiring offense, however, so it's not difficult to imagine there could be some room for improvement in 2020. Mayfield gets fresh start under Kevin Stefanski, whose run-heavy scheme should help to alleviate some pressure on the third-year QB. The lethal combination of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should be just the ticket to open up passing lanes downfield for a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry to ball out.

Reaches

QB Ryan Tannehill, Titans (ADP QB21; Drafted QB13)

Ryan Tannehill was undoubtedly one of the biggest surprises of 2019. After usurping Marcus Mariota for the starting role in Week 7, Tannehill led the Titans on a 7-3 streak that landed them in the AFC title game. In the regular season, Tannehill proved to have a safe floor for fantasy, throwing for two or more touchdowns in all but one of his games as a starter. He averaged a respectable 260 passing yards per game with another 20 rushing yards to boot. He was incredibly efficient with a low passing volume of just 27 attempts per game and ranked second in the league in fantasy points per dropback, per PFF.

The concerns are simple. Are we really expected to buy into the breakout of a 31-year-old quarterback? Tannehill has always shown himself to be a capable game manager, but there should be some expectation that we'll see a regression in his efficiency metrics. His completion rate of 70% is bound to dip closer to his 63% career average. His touchdown rate of 7.7% will probably dip closer to his 4.5% career average. Though a run-first offense (particularly one run through King Henry) has the potential to boost the efficiency within the passing game, it's hard to imagine sustaining that pace. Drafting Tannehill as the QB13 is likely drafting him at his 2020 ceiling.

Rounds 9-16

Values

RB Ronald Jones, Buccaneers (ADP RB32; Drafted RB41)

The discussion surrounding the Tampa Bay backfield has been one of the more polarizing debates this offseason. Jones got off to a rocky start in his NFL career, totaling just 23 carries in his rookie season to average 1.9 yards per attempt. He bounced back in a nice way, assuming a heavier workload in 2019 alongside veteran Peyton Barber. He finished the season with 1,033 scrimmage yards on 203 touches, but something odd was happening. Despite his position as the most efficient runner in Tampa, Bruce Arians just... kept giving Barber work. Barber finished the season with two more red zone carries and six-more rushing attempts inside the five. Waiting for the breakout was maddening, but in 2020, Jones is all but a shoo-in for the RB1 role. This is especially true given rookie Ke'Shawn Vaughn's placement on the reserve/COVID-19 list and the league's cancellation of preseason games. There will likely be a prolonged adjustment period for rookies given these circumstances, and with that, Jones is bound for volume that will make him a steal drafted as the RB41.

WR Will Fuller, Texans (ADP WR35; Drafted WR42)

The trade of DeAndre Hopkins was undoubtedly one of the most surprising transactions of the offseason. Despite the acquisition of wideout Brandin Cooks and pass-catching specialist David Johnson, there is still plenty of opportunity within this offensive scheme for a Will Fuller breakout. Hopkins has averaged 166 targets per season since 2015, and it stands to reason that some of those should float Fuller's way moving forward. In games that Fuller has seen six or more targets, he's averaged 19 PPR points, 93 yards and 0.5 TDs per game. That pace is good enough for the WR2 in 2019. The trick is for Fuller to stay on the field, and another season removed from his torn ACL in 2018 only should inspire more confidence in his health. There are few wideouts that offer a similar upside with this small draft capital investment.

RB Derrius Guice, Washington (ADP RB31; Drafted RB37)

Though fantasy football players have been given cause for concern in regards to the durability of Derrius Guice, it's difficult to deny that the upside is still palpable. The former LSU running back was drafted 59th Overall in 2018, but since, has struggled to stay on the field. After suffering a torn ACL in the 2018 preseason, Guice was ready for a return before then spraining his MCL, landing on the injured reserved list to close out the season after being active just five total games. Guice announced on Twitter that he has been cleared to play for the 2020 NFL Season, and if workout videos are any indication, he's ready to go. At the price of RB37, Guice is one of the last viable backs on the board with the true potential to be utilized as a workhorse and who has receiving upside.

TE Noah Fant, Broncos (ADP TE13; Drafted TE19)

Noah Fant's ADP climbed this offseason after posting up a solid 40/562/3 line in his rookie season out of Iowa. He's got size, athleticism and 4.50 speed that speaks for itself when we consider his potential as a 2020 tight end break out. Despite a solid line to close out his rookie season, there are plenty of question marks that remain in terms of his range of outcomes in the coming season. Fant finished the season as one of just eight NFL tight ends with two or more games of 100+ receiving yards. You have to love the upside. The bad news? His lows are low.

• Games with 40 or fewer receiving yards: 12/16 (75%)
• Games with 20 or fewer receiving yards: 7/16 (44%)
• Games with 10 or fewer receiving yards: 5/16 (31%)

The risk of Fant's low floor is baked into his draft cost as the TE19. Jesse Reeves got a bargain when we consider the upside and potential second-year leap for the soon-to-be sophomore tight end.

Reaches

TE Ian Thomas, Panthers (ADP TE 27; Drafted TE18)

New starting tight end, who dis? It's difficult to fathom an offense with more question marks than the 2020 Carolina Panthers. New coach, new system, new quarterback... it's a lot of moving pieces to analyze at once, particularly without a full off-season program. Ian Thomas has shown sparks when given the opportunity, averaging nearly 10 fantasy points per game when veteran Greg Olsen was inactive. The only question is, can he sustain that over a season? With the number of unknowns for this NFL season and particularly in Carolina, I'd simply prefer to take a gamble on a breakout tight end in a stable offensive situation, like an Irv Smith Jr. or Chris Herndon, who can each be drafted a bit later.

WR Jalen Reagor, Eagles (ADP WR50; Drafted WR33)

The barren receiver corps in Philadelphia should provide 2020's 21st overall pick some opportunity in the coming season... if only we weren't subject to the COVID-19 offseason program. The Eagles wideouts struggled to stay healthy in 2019, and with that, we saw tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert lead the team in targets. Though they made a move to give Carson Wentz another receiving weapon in the draft, we should anticipate the continued heavy-involvement of the team's TEs given their familiarity with the offense. Rookie wideouts often take some time to develop (even if 2019 was a landmine), and the lack of time to build rapport with his quarterback and learn offensive scheme hands-on makes any rookie receiver a risky pick beyond the final rounds of your redraft leagues.