Rob Gronkowski's Fantasy Outlook for 2020
Future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady stunned the NFL world last month by signing a two-year, $50 million deal with the Buccaneers. His contract is fully guaranteed, and it includes up to $9 million in additional incentives. The Buccaneers have also agreed not to trade Brady or use the franchise tag on him when the contract expires. Yesterday it was reported by NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport that one of his favorite receiving targets, Rob Gronkowski, was coming out of retirement to join him in Tampa Bay.
#Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski has taken his physical already, sources say. So the trade should happen: Gronk and a 7th for a 4th rounder.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 21, 2020
Gronkowski, according to Rapoport, has been putting on weight for a return to football and told the Patriots he’d like to play with Brady in Tampa Bay. Gronkowski’s already taken his physical and will honor his current contract according to his agent Drew Rosenhaus. Even though he didn’t play last season after his retirement announcement via Instagram in March 2019, Gronkowski had one year remaining on the six-year contract extension he signed in 2012. This is what required a trade in order to reunite the dynamic duo in Tampa Bay. Here is what Buccaneers’ general manager Jason Licht said about Gronkowski in a statement:
Rob Gronkowski is one of the best tight ends in NFL history and he plays the game with the type of passion and desire that sets him apart. Rob has played his entire career alongside Tom Brady and their accomplishments speak for themselves. Together they have developed the type of chemistry on and off the field that is crucial to success. Rob combines elite-level skills as both a receiver and blocker but what really makes him special is the fact that he’s a proven winner who brings that championship mindset and work ethic.
This article will discuss Gronkowski’s statistical history, how he will fit into the Buccaneers’ offense, and what you can expect from a fantasy perspective.
Rob Gronkowski’s Statistical Body of Work
Brady has thrown 79 career touchdown passes to Gronkowski. This is the fifth-most by any quarterback-receiver combo in NFL history. The duo generated a 129.6 passer rating during their time together during the regular season. This ranks first among all quarterback to receiver duos with at least 200 attempts since 2006. Gronkowski was in a tier of his own at the tight end position from a fantasy football perspective, finishing as the TE1 four times. He won three Super Bowls with the Patriots and was named to five Pro Bowls.
Gronkowski had one of the best seasons in NFL history for a tight end in 2011 finishing with 1,310 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns. Even if he didn’t return for what will be his age 31 season, he has compiled a Hall of Fame resume. Gronkowski caught 521 of 794 targets for 7,861 receiving yards and 79 touchdowns. His 79 regular-season touchdowns were the most by a player at any position in that span. The only other tight ends with more all-time are Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates. Gronkowski has four seasons with 1,000 or more receiving yards and five in which Gronkowski scored 10 or more touchdowns. Here is a visual of how he performed on a per-game basis.
| Year | Age | Games | Targets | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Air Yards | TD | Half -PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 21 | 16 | 3.69 | 2.63 | 34.1 | 34.5 | 0.63 | 8.4 |
| 2011 | 22 | 16 | 7.75 | 5.63 | 82.9 | 72.4 | 1.06 | 17.9 |
| 2012 | 23 | 11 | 7.18 | 5.00 | 71.8 | 72.0 | 1.00 | 15.5 |
| 2013 | 24 | 7 | 9.43 | 5.57 | 84.6 | 101.5 | 0.57 | 14.7 |
| 2014 | 25 | 15 | 8.73 | 5.47 | 74.9 | 85.8 | 0.80 | 15.0 |
| 2015 | 26 | 15 | 8.00 | 4.80 | 78.4 | 83.4 | 0.73 | 14.6 |
| 2016 | 27 | 8 | 4.75 | 3.13 | 67.5 | 62.3 | 0.38 | 10.6 |
| 2017 | 28 | 14 | 7.50 | 4.93 | 77.4 | 91.7 | 0.57 | 13.8 |
| 2018 | 29 | 13 | 5.54 | 3.62 | 52.5 | 69.0 | 0.23 | 8.3 |
No other tight end produced more yards after the catch than Gronkowski’s 3,080 yards during his nine seasons in New England. He was one of the rare tight ends who could not only dominate the game as a receiver but also as a blocker. Gronkowski recorded a passer rating of 100 or more when targeted on seven out of eight basic routes on the route tree according to Pro Football Focus. He finished his time in New England with a career pass-blocking grade of 72.6 and a run-blocking grade of 88.7. Let’s walk through Gronkowski’s fantasy outlook with the Buccaneers this season.
How Rob Gronkowski Fits with the Buccaneers
You’re well aware of the rapport Gronkowski has with Brady. Both join a Buccaneers offense that led the NFL in passing yards (303) last season and was fourth in points scored (28.6) per game. Brady inherits one of the top receiving tandems in the NFL with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Both receivers finished in the top four in receiving yards per game. Godwin averaged 95.2 which ranked second while Evans finished fourth with an average of 89. Michael Thomas (107.8) and Julio Jones (93) were the other two receivers. All four wide receivers were chosen to represent the NFC in the Pro Bowl. It would not be a surprise to see the Buccaneers add an additional wide receiver in this week’s NFL Draft to replace Breshad Perriman who signed with the Jets during free agency.
Tampa Bay has three picks over the first two days. Gronkowski’s run-blocking prowess will come in handy as the Buccaneers look to improve an anemic running game that ranked 24th in rushing yards (95.1). Gronkowski will primarily compete for targets with Evans and Godwin. The Buccaneers also have tight ends O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate on the roster. The probability of Howard or Brate being traded is even higher now after the addition of Gronkowski. Having another viable tight end on the roster could be a blessing in disguise considering his injury history.
Rob Gronkowski 2016-2018:
*Missed 15 games due to injury (26% of games including playoffs)
*Played through a Q tag 11 games pic.twitter.com/Xo6uP7r2dL— Dr. Edwin Porras (@FBInjuryDoc) April 21, 2020
The multitude of injuries that Gronkowski has sustained over the course of his career finally caught up with him in 2018. He was a shell of himself, but the irony is that Gronkowski was still better than most of his peers that played meaningful snaps that season, finishing as the TE11. He had five games with double-digit fantasy points. Gronkowski may not be the athletic dynamo he was earlier in his career, but still has the frame and play strength to be a very good fantasy tight end in 2020. One advantage Gronkowski has over the Buccaneers’ offensive weapons is continuity with Brady. COVID-19 has dramatically altered the NFL offseason program. It’s in the realm of possibility that Brady may not be able to throw passes to his new skill position teammates until this summer.
Rob Gronkowski has the highest career yards per target of any player. Not just of any tight end (min 500 career targets)
How do we not talk about this every day?— TJ Hernandez (@TJHernandez) April 18, 2020
Gronkowski could find himself in a situation being heavily targeted, especially early during the season. This momentum could continue throughout the season especially if Evans and Godwin aren’t calibrated with Brady when it comes to viewing the field. Another positive is that Gronkowski could see more single coverage considering the defensive attention that Evans and Godwin command.
But Bruce Arians doesn’t like tight ends so why is everyone excited for Rob Gronkowski?
— Adam Ronis (@AdamRonis) April 21, 2020
The thought may have entered your mind that Gronkowski is not the best fit for the Buccaneers given the history of tight end production under head coach Bruce Arians. Howard finished last season with a disappointing 53 targets, 34 receptions, 459 receiving yards, and one touchdown across 14 games. Brate, on the other hand, finished with 56 targets, 36 receptions, 311 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. Arians’s has more of a history of misusing tight ends.
If Gronk has any juice left to get down field, Bruce Arians is actually the perfect coach for him. Few other coaches let their TEs occupy the intermediate middle that often.
What Arians doesn't do is making the TE a more focal point. But Brady would take care of that. pic.twitter.com/4gxJq1TSt8— Moo (@PFF_Moo) April 21, 2020
If you are open, then Brady will feed you a steady dose of accurate passes. Over the last three seasons, he’s averaged a true passer rating of 99. This quarterback rating factors out unpressured throwaways and dropped passes. Brady also has a prolific history when compared to other quarterbacks of targeting his tight ends. Here is a chart courtesy of our very own TJ Hernandez that visualizes team tight end target share for active QBs (minimum 1,000 career attempts, 10 starts to qualify in a season).
The amount of guaranteed money that the Buccaneers are paying Brady and his Hall of Fame resume suggests that Arians is coming to provide him the autonomy to run the entire offense. I know that’s a lot to take in, but here’s the bottom line.
Bottom Line
The tight end position continues to be one of the most volatile ones in fantasy football. It remains to be seen what Gronkowski’s average draft position will be in the coming weeks. He’s a candidate to be overvalued. Would you draft Gronkowski over Travis Kelce or George Kittle? He belongs in the tier beneath them. Gronkowski has the potential with Brady in the Buccaneers offense to finish as a top-six fantasy tight end. The Tampa Bay offense, unfortunately, has a number of mouths to feed which adds volatility to his fantasy outlook.
