Dallas Goedert Will Be Good in 2024 in a New Offense, But is He Primed to Breakout in Fantasy?

From a pure talent point of view, Dallas Goedert might be one of the best two-way tight ends in the NFL today. From a bread-and-butter stats point of view, he has never really put his gifts to full use and become a dominant force in his position. This has frustrated both Eagles fans and fantasy managers alike. But with a new offense coming to Philadelphia in 2024, is Goedert finally primed to become a superstar at the tight end spot?

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Not Great but Good in 2023

The Eagles' offense was not a cohesive unit in 2023, save for the dominance of A.J. Brown and the near-unstoppable “Tush Push” play. Goedert’s production was solid, but nothing to go crazy about. He caught 59 balls for 592 yards and three touchdowns. Goedert was 14th among all tight ends with 83 targets, although he was 10th in targets per game with 5.93 (Goedert only played 14 games). He ranked ninth among all tight ends with at least 75 targets with a 17% target share and was also ninth with 319 yards after the catch. Indeed, his 5.41 YAC per reception was good for fourth-best at the tight end spot.

These numbers only tell a fraction of the tale from 2023 for Goedert, however. As previously mentioned, Goedert suited up for 14 games. He has not played a full season since his rookie year of 2018. He has also never been known as having a nose for the end zone in the NFL. His career high for touchdowns in a season is just five, and that tally came back in 2019. His 59 receptions last year were a new career high, but his 10.0 yards per reception was a new low. But changes are coming to the Birds this season that should give Goedert enthusiasts reasons to be cheerful.

The New Guy

The Eagles waved goodbye and good luck (well, goodbye, certainly) to offensive coordinator Brian Johnson following the 2023 season. In his place, they hired former Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to run their offense. Moore has built a reputation for an offense that caters to the skills of his players, especially at the tight end spot. Between 2019 and 2022, Cowboys tight ends combined for the tenth most targets (474) and fifth most receptions (345) in the entire league. They combined for the 13th biggest yardage total but scored the ninth most touchdowns.

Moore’s offenses also have a reputation for playing fast and running a lot of plays. Moore’s Cowboys led the NFL in seconds per snap (26.4) and plays per game (66) during his tenure. He also leaned towards the pass and showed a love for 11 personnel. The Cowboys' neutral pass rate from 2019-22 was 57%, and only once in that period did the Cowboys rank lower than 11th in their 11 personnel usage. Moore likes his teams to run a lot of plays, and he likes one tight end to be out as a receiver. That sounds like good news for Goedert, especially with the lack of a true third pass-catching option after Brown and DeVonta Smith on the Eagles.

The Other New Guy

It is important to remember, however, that while Moore may be able to put Goedert in a position where he can boost his output, he is not likely to be able to reach an elite level of opportunity as long as the Eagles have both Brown and Smith healthy in 2024. The signing of Saquon Barkley is also a factor that shouldn’t be ignored. The Eagles have done an excellent job of not featuring the running backs in the passing game over the last few seasons. Eagles backs have seen just 260 combined targets since 2021, tied for the third-fewest in the league in that span. Only five teams have combined for fewer RB receptions than the Eagles 196. Although it should be noted that Jalen Hurt's targeted running backs at a 16% rate in 2023, tied for the third highest rate among all quarterbacks with at least 500 dropbacks. While Barkley is going to be mainly a rusher, he averages a robust 5.3 targets per game in his career, and one of the answers to Jalen Hurts’ struggles with the blitz in recent seasons may be to utilize his check-down options. That would seem to be Barkley.

The Eagles are not exactly overflowing with vacated targets from a year ago, either. They rank 14th with 125, or 22.2%. Goedert could certainly see some of these looks. But the Eagles passing offense looks set to continue to flow through Brown and Smith. The other pass catchers will have to make do with meager increases, which is unlikely to see Goedert's target share jump much higher than it was a year ago. Which was a solid number, don't forget. So don't write him off completely.

Fantasy Outlook

Goedert is currently being taken as the TE12 over on Underdog, which is right in line with his ADP across multiple sites. For ourselves, we have Goedert ranked at TE11. He’s not going to be a waste of space, and he almost certainly will be more valuable than a weekly streaming option. But it seems like an awful lot of things would have to go wrong for him to grab a massive role on the Eagles offense, at least a role larger than the one he already had, and unless he develops a taste for the end zone, it’s hard to imagine him as anything more than a solid TE1. But not one who will threaten the likes of Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta as true difference makers at the position for fantasy.

The Bottom Line

• Goedert was good in 2023, but not great. Although the offensive struggles can’t all be put on his shoulders.
• He has a new offensive coach with a track record of getting production from tight ends.
• He’s competing for targets with one of the league’s best WR duos, plus an RB with a solid record of catching passes.
• He’ll be better than a streamer, but not as good as a superstar.