NFL Week 14 Lookahead Lines

Dec 04, 2020

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It's Week 13 in the NFL, meaning the Week 14 lookahead lines are here. We got unlucky with our Texans +3 last week due to multiple key players hit with PED suspensions (Will Fuller and Bradley Roby), moving the line to Colts -3.5. The Jets are the Jets, and we have mixed results with the line jumping to +7.5—some books today had it at Jets +9. As always, these lookahead lines can be found on FanDuel.

Broncos @ Panthers (-3.5, -114)

What can we say about these teams in 2020? One team has direction and a real coach, and they have bought into Matt Rhule's philosophy. The other team cost themselves a chance of winning because of incompetence in the quarterback room, and they have a coach who is somewhat on the hot seat. The Panthers weren’t very highly thought of as a team coming into the year, with a season win total of 5.5. Meanwhile, the Broncos came into the season with high hopes thanks to Drew Lock and great weapons they drafted for him. They had a season win total of 7 or 7.5, depending on when you placed your bet.

As stated in a previous article, keep an eye on teams who had very early byes versus teams whose byes came later in the season. All the way back in Week 5, the Broncos dealt with an unusual COVID-related bye thanks to the Patriots. (It seems like forever ago and I'm not sure how many people remember the Broncos-Patriots game getting moved around to accommodate the Patriots' COVID situation). The Panthers are on the bye this week and are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Vikings. Good coaches in the NFL do well with extra prep time—Andy Reid, Bill Belichick, John Harbaugh and Kyle Shanahan, to name a few. I expect similar results here from Matt Rhule and a Panthers team who needed the rest. I doubt this line goes Panthers -3, outside of a Carolina team dealing with an unexpected COVID outbreak. In the Panthers, you get the better coach, the better team and the better quarterback—with extra prep time. Lastly, I'm not sure how motivated this Broncos team is. The odds of them making the playoffs is less than 1%, according to the 538 NFL Predictions playoffs model. Even if the Broncos somehow beat the Chiefs in Week 13, their chances of making the playoffs jump to only 5%. This line closes much closer to a touchdown.

Pick: Panthers -3.5

Cardinals @ Giants (+3.5, -110)

This line can be attributed to Daniel Jones's injury. The Cardinals are 1-3 in their last four games–they would be 0-4 if not for a Hail Mary touchdown that beat the Bills. What has happened? Kyler Murray has a shoulder injury and isn’t running as much as he once was. He has 10 combined rushes the past two weeks, prior to that he had double-digit carries in four straight games. This Cardinals offense has struggled with him not being able to run, as that really helped open up the offense. I think the Rams beat the Cardinals this week by a touchdown and like the Rams -2.5 this week to cover.

Daniel Jones gets a week off as the Giants travel to Seattle this week. Hopefully, he should be back for this game. No way are the Cardinals 3.5 points better on the road with a banged-up Kyler Murray. The Giants are still alive for the NFC East and should be motivated this game. Don’t hesitate to make this play, as sharps will almost eat this line immediately once Jones is cleared or seems like he will play.

Pick: Giants +3.5