2022 Sentry Tournament of Champions Round 3 Betting & Showdown Picks
It was a historic day for scoring on Friday at the Plantation Couse at Kapalua. With ideal scoring conditions and minimal wind, players shot a course record average of 5.18 strokes under par. Even after starting his round with bogeys on the first two holes, first-round leader Cameron Smith added to his overall lead by shooting a 9-under par 64 in Friday's second round. It is not often you see a first-round leader able to double-down and top his first-round score the next day. On Friday, it was his iron play that was exquisite as he finished third in the field, gaining 2.3 shots on approach. With his 17-under total, he tied the 36-hole scoring record at the Kapalua course with Ernie Els, who dominated the 2003 tournament on his way to an eight-stroke victory.
With a stacked leaderboard behind him, Smith doesn't figure to run away with this championship. Top-ranked Jon Rahm and Daniel Berger each sit three shots back in second place at 14-under. Though he struggled with his touch on the greens, Rahm had a ball-striking day to remember, as he didn't miss a fairway or green the entire round. Reigning Player of the Year, Patrick Cantlay, gained over four strokes ball-striking and is currently in fourth place at 13-under. Hideki Matsuyama and Sungjae Im round out the top six.
With one of our outright picks, Cameron Smith, in the driver's seat through two rounds, I also added Sam Burns at +8000 after he got on a roll early on Friday. He would finish with a 9-under round and currently sits tied for eighth place. There is not much value, even with players seven or eight shots behind, at this point in the tournament with such a stacked top of the board. Bryson DeChambeau at +6500 would be the only exception at the moment. Though he is eight shots behind, his approach game has been dialed in as he has gained 1.6 strokes. It's been his typical excellent putting that has let him down thus far. On a course where an eagle is a possibility on five different holes, he is still not completely out of it.
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Round 3 Betting Selections
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
Jon Rahm (-125) Over Cameron Smith
As good as Cameron Smith has been over the first two rounds, there is no way he can keep up this torrid pace much longer. He was less reliant on the putter during Friday's round but has still played above his typical Bermuda baseline by a large margin. Jon Rahm is the No. 1 ranked player in the world, and admittedly, has left numerous easy putts short of the hole. It often takes him a couple of rounds to get acclimated to these grainy Bermuda putting surfaces. Going into Saturday three shots behind, I'd expect him to make a run for the top of the leaderboard going into Sunday's final round.
Tony Finau (-132) Over Phil Mickelson
Tony Finau's ceiling was limited in Friday's round due to a horrific day with the putter as he lost over three strokes. That being said, he still shot 4-under and was much improved with his irons. Mickelson, on the other hand, took a step back, losing 1.5 strokes OTT and has lost 2.4 strokes ball-striking through the first two rounds. The 51-year-old has also bemoaned the effects the long Kapalua course has taken on his body remarking after Thursday's round, "I'm hurting. It's vertical. It's hard. It's not easy." There was evidence of that yesterday when he finished the round with bogeys on the two finishing holes and struggled to maintain his swing balance on his final tee shot.
Risk: 1.32 Units on PointsBet.
Honorable Mention: Patrick Reed (-114) Over Erik van Rooyen — Risk: 1.14 Units on PointsBet.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Selections
Core Plays
- Patrick Cantlay, $9,200
- Jon Rahm, $10,400
- Tony Finau, $7,900
Top-Tier Plays
- Bryson DeChambeau, $9,600
- Justin Thomas, $10,100
- Daniel Berger, $9,000
Mid-Tier Plays
- Sam Burns, $8,300
- Sungjae Im $8,500
- Patrick Reed, $7,500
- Abraham Ancer, $7,700
Value Plays
- Harris English, $7,000
- Si Woo Kim, $6,500
- Seamus Power, $6,700
- Garrick Higgo, $6,800
For the most up-to-date picks, or if you have any questions or comments, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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