NBA Player Prop Bets: Home Cookin’

Who doesn’t love some home-cookin' and sleeping in their own bed? Blessed with a pair of Game 3 matchups to start the weekend, let’s unravel some critical factors like home vs. away stats and production off of two days of rest. The Atlanta Hawks-Philadelphia 76ers series is locked even after Trae Young & Co. stole one in Philly. While the Denver Nuggets-Phoenix Suns series finds the Association’s MVP, Nikola Jokic, looking to get his back on track at Ball Arena. Playoffs may offer a small sample size to access from, so don’t hesitate to check out 4for4’s NBA Player Prop Tool when searching for value in today’s slate!

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

FanDuel Player Prop Bets (June 11, 2021)

Danilo Gallinari Over 12.5 Points (102)

Atlanta was the second-best team in the Association this year when it comes to Adjusted Efficiency Differential (AED) in games following two days of rest, per NBAstuffer. Having played 14 games in this scenario this year, the Hawks posted an AED of 16.6. Meanwhile, Philadelphia, who played in nine contests following two days of rest, posted an AED of 5.6—good for 13th in the NBA. Tonight’s matchup features a point total of 224.5, favoring Philadelphia by 1.0 points.

Danilo Gallinari has benefited from playing at State Farm Arena, producing far stronger stat lines on much higher efficiency. Betting on a streaky scorer like Gallinari can be nerve-racking, but when noting the production difference in his home vs. road appearances a positive tendency is formed. This trend is consistent through the regular season and the playoffs for this season, which is displayed in the charts below.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.02 units.

Danilo Gallinari Over 1.5 Threes (-128)

As displayed above, it's apparent Gallinari has been extremely effective in home games this year. Averaging 16.5 points per game on shooting splits of 58.8/62.5/100 in playoff contests and 14.1 points per game on shooting splits of 47.9/44.4/91.6 throughout the regular season. For this next prop, we look at his three-point production in home vs. away games. This Philadelphia series offers much better matchups for Gallinari with so much size on the opposing side at the wing and forward position. He received nine more minutes of play in Game 2 versus Game 1 and I see that continually trending in a positive direction.

Danilo Gallinari has averaged 2.2 made threes during the regular season and bumped that average up to 2.5 made threes in home games thus far these playoffs. Through seven playoff games this year, he's averaged 2.0 made threes while shooting 38.9%. Hoisting 5.1 threes per game gives Gallinari plenty of opportunity to hit two threes especially with the boost in efficiency back at State Farm Arena.

Risk: 1.28 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.

Michael Porter Jr. Over 26.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-104)

Finishing off today’s prop bets, we take a look at a player combo from the Denver Nuggets-Phoenix Suns series. Denver comes into this Game 3 down 2-0, featuring a point total of 222.5, with Denver favored by 1.5 points. The theme again for this prop is home-cookin'! Michael Porter Jr. has been on an offensive tear dating back, honestly, to the bubble. He's a straight shooter with tremendous size and length and may have as green of a light as anyone in the Association. When diving into his home vs. away splits you notice just how much more productive he is at home. Not only does Porter shoot more, get to the line more, and do so in a much more efficient manner, but his production across the board increases exponentially. In the charts below, you can observe his stat-stuffing lines i home vs. road contests. Coming off a few less desirable road games, Michael Porter Jr. will come out tonight aggressive and looking to make his impact felt early and often.

Risk: 1.04 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.