NBA Player Prop Bets: Wood Lays the Lumber
Another effect of the preponderance of players in the health and safety protocols is the higher likelihood of blowouts limiting the minutes of key players on the opposition of teams with COVID-19 issues. Last night, out of the seven games, four of them were decided by 20+ points, and three of those games were lost by teams battling significant portions of their rotations being in the health and safety protocols. So, while deciding what props seem valuable on a given night, more than even, determining if the player can provide the efficiency necessary in fewer minutes will be key.
That is where the tools 4for4 provides can come in handy. Check out the Player Prop Tool, Prop Explorer, and get involved in the Discord chat, where the staff and subscribers talk through some of their favorite plays for the night.
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
FanDuel Player Prop Bets (December 27, 2021)
Coby White (CHI) Under 3.5 Assists (+128)
The Chicago Bulls fanbase thought they were on the other side of the team’s COVID-19 issues after a vast majority of their rotation was in the health and safety protocols. Now Lonzo Ball and Tony Bradley have gone into the protocols, so they are out of the lineup, along with Alex Caruso, who is working his way back from a mid-foot sprain.
The absences in the backcourt have thrust Coby White into the starting lineup and that seems to have increased the optimism in White’s assist number. On the season, outside of the three games where White only played 10 minutes as he ramped up while rehabbing a torn left labrum, White is averaging 1.8 assists on 4.0 potential assists in nine games played.
White has not gone over this prop in any game this season, only hitting three assists once, and in his two games with 30+ minutes, White has only averaged 5.5 potential assists. Also, considering the state the Atlanta Hawks are in, with most of their rotation in the health and safety protocols, fewer minutes due to a blowout situation, on a back-to-back is certainly in play.
Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.28 units. (Playable to -105)
Patty Mills (BKN) Over 3.5 Assists (+122)
On Christmas, Patty Mills showed even in a game where he is looking for his own shot, he still gets enough usage to clear his assists prop with ease. The Nets should have a similar roster available as they have had the last two games, putting Mills as the secondary playmaker and scoring option.
In the last two games, Mills has averaged 6.0 assists on 8.5 potential assists. While it’s not realistic to expect that efficiency to continue, the Lakers showed on Christmas that teams respect Mills’s shooting that much more with the lack of other shooters on the floor and they tend to help more aggressively on him. That leads to other players being more open and a higher efficiency per potential assist.
The Nets are still at Crypto.com Arena tonight, taking on the Clippers. The Clippers are allowing the second-most assists to shooting guards over the last two weeks and third-most over the course of the season. Mills is functionally the shooting guard with James Harden being the primary ball-handler.
Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.22 units. (Playable to -110)
PointsBet Player Prop Bets (December 27, 2021)
Christian Wood (HOU) Over 18.5 Points (-110)
No matter who else has been in the lineup, Wood has been a consistent, central part of the offense. He is averaging 20.1 points over his last seven games with an extra field goal attempt per game and shooting better from the field.
Add to the increased efficiency, a matchup today against a Charlotte Hornets team allowing the second-most points to centers over the last seven games and the most points to centers over the course of the season. Of the teams Houston faced in their last seven games, only Minnesota is within one point allowed to centers of Charlotte.
The total for the game is 234.5, which is sky high for this season where the increased defense has been the story more than dynamic offense. The consensus Houston team total is 113.5, which is over four points higher than their average points scored over the last two weeks.
Wood has been going over this number consistently as of late—in six of the last seven and eight of his last ten—and the game environment leads to a better-than-average scoring environment and value on the over for Wood’s scoring.
Risk: 1.1 units on PointsBet to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)
For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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