Week 1 PrizePicks Prop Bets
Each week during the NFL season I will scour through the PrizePicks Over/Under projections and compare them to 4for4's projections to highlight a few value plays. If you're not familiar with PrizePicks, they offer pick’em situations involving player stats and fantasy points. To complete an entry, select two or more options for your chance to win money up to triple your entry cost. More information on rules can be found here.
The picks below will be based on PrizePicks’ fantasy score lines. Before we get to the picks, though, there is one auto-play prop: Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Passing Yards.
0.5 yards!
There is usually no such thing as a lock in fantasy football, but this is an exception. PrizePicks set the total for Patrick Mahomes passing yards at just 0.5 yards for Week 1. All he has to do is complete a pass for one yard and you win! This is as easy as it gets. Don’t overthink it. You already signed up, so just hammer the over and watch it multiply!
Now onto the fantasy score prop picks...
Jared Goff Under 16.0 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 13.4 Fantasy Points
The easy answer is to say trusting Jared Goff with a new receiving corps is not advisable. Entering 2021, the San Francisco 49ers defense ranks fourth in schedule-adjusted positional defensive ranking (aFPA) in PPR. As a collective, the 49ers defense is sixth in offensive production. Tyrell Williams is Goff’s only trustworthy receiver and he has never been a number one target. We cannot forget about T.J. Hockenson as an option, right? San Francisco is first against opposing tight ends in aFPA.
Derrick Henry Under 20.0 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 17.7 Fantasy Points
As much guff as the Cardinals defense gets, it is still middle-of-the-road in aFPA and 15th against running backs. The spread makes Tennessee three-point home favorites but that does not account for how much worse the Titans' defense is compared to how good the Cardinals' offense is. Both quarterbacks have an opportunity for big days with cornerback being easy targets on both defenses. Henry will get his—17.7 PPR points is good for 100-plus yards and a touchdown (PrizePicks doesn't offer a bonus for 100 yards like on DraftKings). Henry is a zero in the passing game, making the under a lot more reasonable.
A.J. Brown Over 16.0 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 18.3 Fantasy Points
A.J. Brown’s over ties into Henry’s under. Brown is also in year three of his NFL career, which fits into the Year 2/Year 3 breakout receivers see and is only one year shy of 25, the beginning of his expected peak. Brown will see Bryon Murphy Jr. and/or Robert Alford in coverage. Murphy finished 2020 as the 48th-ranked cornerback, according to Pro Football Focus. The last time Alford played in 2018 (injuries), he finished with a PFF score of 56.6. The two have a combined 11 interceptions, with Murphy recording just one in two seasons. Neither will slow down Brown enough to prevent a strong game.
Tyler Conklin Over 7.0 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 8.1
If you know who Logan Wilson, Germaine Pratt, Jordan Evans and Akeem Davis-Gaither are, then you deserve a Coke. Those are the starting Bengals linebackers and their backups. Tyler Conklin saw 21 targets in the final four games of 2020 and topped seven fantasy points in three of them. In the fourth contest, Conklin had exactly seven fantasy points. Chris Herndon does little to scare me off of Conklin.
Elijah Moore Over 11.0 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 12.0 Fantasy Points
The over sticks out more because the Jets will be without Jamison Crowder and Keelan Cole is capital ‘Q’ questionable to play. That leaves the Jets with Elijah Moore, Corey Davis and Denzel Mims as the Jets' top three options. Corey Davis will draw the most attention and Moore should be in the slot away from Donte Jackson and Jaycee Horn. The Jets have a team implied point total of 20.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook and committed a sizeable number of resources on strengthening the offensive line to protect first-round pick Zach Wilson. Moore should see close to double-digit targets in the slot.
Phillip Lindsay Under 8.5 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 4.4 Fantasy Points
If Phillip Lindsay was the unquestioned running back in Houston, 8.5 fantasy points would be attainable versus a Jaguars defense ranked 31st in aFPA to opposing running backs. However, there are three backs vying for touches, and rumors out of Houston have Mark Ingram as the lead back for now. Lindsay also cedes passing down work to David Johnson. Playing middleman in a backfield in a poor offense is never a good place to be.
Chris Carson Under 16.0 Fantasy Points
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4for4 Projection: 13.8 Fantasy Points
The Colts will be without cornerback Xavier Rhodes in Week 1, forcing an already thin secondary to slot up against DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and D'Wayne Eskridge. New Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron is tasked with turning around a passing game that started hot in 2020 but fizzled as the team went back to a run-first approach. Letting Russell Wilson cook in Week 1 should be the highest priority, especially against a banged-up secondary. That limits Chris Carson’s upside. Not to mention the Colts also have a strong Colts front seven.
Kyle Pitts Over 12.5 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 12.5 Fantasy Points
Kyle Pitts saw little action in the preseason to keep the ‘genie in the bottle’ so to speak. He wowed in his one game of action and enters 2021 as Atlanta’s second-best passing option. No matter how you categorize Pitts—a tight end or wide receiver—the Eagles are 26th in aFPA to both positions. The Falcons have a 26.5-point implied team total at home against a powerful Eagles offense, so a shoot out is a possibility. Matt Ryan is going to pepper Pitts with targets.
