NFL Week 12 Lookahead Lines Report

Trying to predict where each game's line is going to re-open isn't complicated, but it's invaluable. Last week was successful in terms of gaining closing line value in a number of spots, including Thursday night's New England and Atlanta matchup.

Remember, friends don't let friends bet NFL sides on game day. I understand the appeal of getting action down on a game that's about to kick off, but please, for the love of all things sacred, don't do it. In my opinion, the only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, which is an indication the book feels they've priced the game correctly. Unless you're waiting later in the week because you're betting five to six figures on a side, your +EV increases if you can get down on a number before it's sharpened by the whales.

Each week of the season, I provide a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of lookahead lines. This brief lookahead window provides a sneak peek at how teams are valued by bookmakers prior to the start of the week. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening after the previous week's games are complete. These lines are a true indicator of how bookmakers value each team, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down you'd like, depending on your unit sizing. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, and that is easier to do once you know what the opening number was.

When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. At times, it ends up being the best of the number, which is ideal. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 11 evaluation of the team and market, I'm going to have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 12.

For reference, I'll be using the initial odds released by Westgate back in May to show you how the game opened. You can use the game tiles below to find the best number, and the spread listed is based on the home team:

Week 12 Lookahead Lines Takeaways

I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. For the most part, these quirks are already baked into the number, but there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market.

Bye Weeks: Cardinals & Chiefs

Bears @ Lions (+3)

Thanksgiving is the best. Food, family and football. The only downside is we're subjected to a Lions island game every year. To make matters worse this year, they're playing the Bears. The Lions are coming off of an emotional non-loss, their first of the season, and there's no way of knowing how they'll roll this momentum over into their Week 10 matchup against the Browns. Chances are they get crushed. The Bears host the Ravens in Week 10 and have been getting steamed by the market over the past 48 hours. Home dogs have been eating well this season, and if you're backing Detroit here you can likely hold off for a better number.

Raiders @ Cowboys (-7)

The Raiders are in the midst of a tailspin. The off-the-field drama has been relentless over the past month, and it's clearly impacting the team's play on the field. They've looked lifeless in their past two contests, and a trip to Jerry's World on Thanksgiving Day doesn't scream 'get right spot' to me. A Cowboys win at Arrowhead in Week 10 will balloon this line through the seven quickly, which is strongly in the range of outcomes. Also worth noting, this is Dallas' last home game until Week 16. Don't hold your breath for a 6.5.

Bills @ Saints (+4.5)

I struggle to handicap the Saints every week, but on the whole, I believe they're quite limited. The Bills appeared to find something last week against the Jets, which I'm sure your first reaction is "of course they did, it's the Jets", and that's completely fair. The Bills moved Josh Allen under center for a season-high 72% of the team's snaps, a very different look from the prior week's loss to Jacksonville when Allen was in shotgun 91% of the time. That translated into a ton of play-action looks, as Allen's play-action rate spiked to 58%, nearly double his seasonal rate of 32%. The Saints have struggled against play-action passing all season, making this a nice matchup for the Bills. I don't think this is a line we need to move on now, though, but the Bills are a strong lean for me here.

Buccaneers @ Colts (+3.5)

This is an oil and water matchup for the Colts. Offensively, they're at their best when running the football and working play-action off of it, but the Buccaneers remain one of the best run-stuffing units in the league. Defensively, stopping the run is their strength, but they're susceptible through the air against strong passing attacks, ranking 31st in passing success rate allowed on the season. This line likely stays stuck between the three and seven, regardless of Week 11's results, but I'm looking to back the Buccaneers here.

Jets @ Texans (-2.5)

Do we have to?

Titans @ Patriots (-3)

I'm struggling to wrap my head around the Titans. They sit atop the AFC standings at 8-2, and they've done so on the back of the league's toughest schedule through the first 10 weeks. They have the easiest schedule from here on out, and they own head-to-head tiebreakers against both the Bills and Chiefs. Wild. The issue is, I'm not sure who they are without Derrick Henry, and I'm not confident they do any one thing particularly well. A win in New England would all but assure the Titans of the coveted No. 1 seed in the conference, but I think the Patriots have other plans.

Steelers @ Bengals (-4)

The AFC North is a mess, but all four clubs are very much alive in the race for the divisional crown and a spot in the playoffs. The Steelers have struggled against the Bengals recently, losing the past two meetings including their Week 3 matchup, 24-10. This begins a three-game homestand for the Bengals, and all three opponents come to Cinncinati on the second-leg of back-to-back road games. Good teams take advantage of edges like this, so we'll find out quickly if the Bengals have what it takes down the stretch.

Browns @ Ravens (-4.5)

It's only fitting that the other two AFC North clubs face off this week as well. The Ravens are the AFC version of the Vikings. They're willing and able to play to the level of their opponent each and every week. The Browns should dominate the Lions in Week 11, and a winner here in Baltimore puts them right back in the mix for a playoff spot come January.

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