4for4 Betting Recap: Week 11
Welcome to the 4for4 football gambling recap! My name is Dan Rivera and I am in charge of tracking bets from Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, Sam Hoppen, Greg Smith, Anthony Stalter and TJ Calkins. Each week, I track their bets and provide feedback after the Monday Night Football game ends. If you have not found it, I track them all here in this 4for4 Tracker. Make sure you switch to the right person and sport.
When you look at anyone in the 2021 NFL, you will see some yellow blocks. There are two points you need to know:
- You will see a weekly tracker; this just lets you look at anyone on any given week. This is what I like to call the micro tracker.
- The big yellow box has most of the plays broken down by position, prop type, totals, spreads, etc. The total units won or lost will differ from this deep dive version because certain plays didn’t fit into the deep dive. For example, Ryan Noonan bet the Patriots to make the playoffs. It doesn’t fit into any of the weekly bets during the NFL season.
Why do I do this? When tracking NFL bets, 99% of all bets anyone makes are working juice (meaning you have to lay more money down than you would win). This tracker is far superior compared to other trackers. Other trackers don’t have bets broken down by type, it is just simply a tracker. To me, that isn’t helpful. I want the data (picks) to tell a story so I can help whoever is making the picks win more. With the juice, you are better off avoiding losers than you are winning. My goal is to help anyone I track to avoid losers or have them attack successful areas. When you look at the deep dive table, be careful if one area looks good or bad. The sample size is key to that deep dive table and a small sample can get very skewed in one direction.
Ninety-nine percent of all plays tracked are to win 1 unit or 0.5 units. You will get maybe one, max two plays from any one bet to win more than 1 unit.
With that being said, let's look at Week 11!
Skewed Stats Alert: Connor, Ryan and Sam all hit a 37-1 bet in Week 8, skewing their props up for the year. The year-to-date records will include it. All three of them risked 0.25 units to win 9.25 units. The prop was Elijah Mitchell to lead the league in rushing yards for Sunday games only.
Ryan Noonan
Week 11: 6-9, 40%, -3.78 units
YTD: 108-95-1 52.94%, 18.31 units
Dan’s Analysis: Ryan has been hit hard with bad variance the past few weeks and it is hurting him big time. Ryan had some bad luck this week with Justin Fields getting hurt, Rashoad Bateman not having a real QB and Jordan Howard and the entire Eagles team running all over the best run defense in the NFL in the Saints. Stuff happens in the NFL gambling world and it is the most frustrating thing when betting. Ryan will be fine the rest of the year and this losing streak will come to an end just like Connor’s did back in September. Ryan has plenty of time to bounce back with teams playing seven more games each.
Ryan continues to do well in WR props, going 36-23 and his team totals sit at 15-9, above the 60% mark. I wrote a while back that his team totals were on a completely unsustainable win rate and those were due to regress. On the flip side of regressing, Ryan's RB props are 23-22 for the year, despite that 4-10 record for the year on RB receiving yards. I expect him to finish close to 53% for the year for RB props.
In Week 9, I did a quick glace for Ryan’s and Connor’s future picks. Ryan’s month from hell might be a drag but these futures picks sure aren’t! He has two bad bets, Browns and Football Team to win the division. Yes, I know the Browns are still alive but Baker Mayfield is hurt and it seems like a tall task for them to catch up. The reason I bring this up early is because all of his other bets look good or really good but Breshad Perriman finally took some snaps this week! That was a bet that has a very good chance to cash if he took some snaps. Most books grade season-long player props on if that player took a snap or not and that is how I will be grading these. As always, check the rules at your sportsbook because so many are out there and some books have odd rules.
Connor Allen
Week 11: 9-4, 69.23%, 4.32 units
YTD: 99-78, 55.93%, 23.88 units
Dan’s Analysis: Connor continues to have a great month of November. He's on an eight-week winning streak and will definitely blame me if he has a losing Week 12 for jinxing him (sorry Connor).
Connor continues to do very well in QB and WR props. Connor is sitting at 59.38% for QB props and 67.74% for WR props. I can tell you right now that Connor finishing above 65% in one category is highly unlikely. It is very difficult to maintain that type of winning percentage over a long period of time. However, he did go 65.82% last year on RB props (that is rush yards, carries, rush + rec yards) but that RB record was over 79 picks while WR props this year are at 62 picks. Something that wasn’t tracked last year because I wasn’t officially tracking Connor yet or 4for4 until late September were players futures bets.
Sam Hoppen
Week 11: 3-2, 60%, 0.72 units
YTD: 31-22, 58.49%, 16.28 units
Dan’s Analysis: It took 11 weeks and 53 picks but I can finally deep dive Sam! Sam is coming off a 2-1 week with his props article. Sam did get some bad injury lucky with Michael Carter getting hurt but that is how betting goes sometimes.
Sam’s best category is QBs, where he is currently 9-4. The other two big categories, RB and WR, both currently sit at 9-8 and are profitable. Sam’s RB units are skewed up because he hit a longshot bet back in Week 8.
Greg Smith
Week 11: 3-3, 50%, 0.25 units
YTD: 54-46, 54%, 5.72 units
Dan’s Analysis: Greg is working in some of the most efficient gambling markets out there. What I mean is that a half-point to a full point is the difference between having a winning weekend versus a losing weekend. With totals, you will see 1- or 2-point swings, but both of these markets are by far the hardest to win in the long term. For example, in Week 3, Greg had such bad beats on Raiders -3.5 and under 45.5. If the Raiders do their job and don’t allow the Dolphins to score in the end, he goes 4-4 instead of 2-6. That series had a net swing of 4.2 units that cost him 2.2 units.
Profit is profit! Greg continues to do phenomenal against the spread (ATS)! Greg is now 26-18, 59.09%, ATS with a sample size of 44 picks! Greg has clearly identified when to bet teams ATS with the help of his flowbotics. Professionals make a nice living going 55% ATS and Greg is sitting at 59% 11 weeks into the year. He is 20-13 (60.61%) betting favorites. My guess is he will finish the year around 58-60%.
Now comes the bad. Greg has been hurt on totals this year, particularly overs. Greg is now 7-11 on overs and 11-7 on unders this year.
Anthony Stalter
Week 11: 1-2, 33.33%, -1.1 units
YTD: 19-14, 57.58%, 4.6 units
TJ Calkins
Week 11: 1-2, 10-18%, -9.8 units
YTD: 10-18, 35.71%, -9.8 units
Dan’s Analysis: Both Anthony and TJ suffer from small sample sizes. I just wanted them in the article as the entire 4for4 crew for NFL is being tracked by me. The record will speak for both because deep-diving them wouldn't yield much analysis.
