Game Flowbotics: Week 12 Picks Against the Spread

Nov 24, 2021

Photo by David Berding/Getty Images

Supposedly, chickens will run around with their heads cut off, but will turkeys do the same? I don’t know, and I don’t want to know. Maybe Beyond Meat or Field Roast can sponsor this column next year so I don’t have to stretch for fowl-decapitation similes, but until the fake meat money rolls in, you’re stuck with me gobblersplaining that American NFL fans are typically very busy during the week of Thanksgiving, myself included. On that note, I’m going to (hopefully) keep the forthcoming blurbs for my Week 12 against the spread and over/under picks briefer than in other weeks. As usual, my analysis is based on the Game Flowbotics page linked below, which gathers pace and efficiency data from Football Outsiders and color-codes the matchups between teams in different phases of the game. Enjoy the extra games and food on Thursday, and any Week 12 betting profits will be gravy. (Sorry, I had to.)

Accountability

Last week, I went 3-3 with my picks for a gain of 0.25 units. Year to date, my record is 48-39-1 (55.2%) and I’m up 6.121 units overall. For what it’s worth, the best bets went 3-1, and the rapid-fire picks went 0-2. Thankfully, one of those rapid-fire losers was only for half a unit, which kept the week profitable (just barely).

I don’t have a lot to say about the three losses. I had a bad read on the defenses and pace with my over bet for Packers-Vikings, but at least I picked the side correctly. Bengals-Raiders missed the over as well, with Las Vegas perhaps finally exposed as a team in decline after multiple off-the-field hardships. Lastly, the vig on the Cowboys’ team total had me nervous about betting the over as I was writing it up—which is why I only made it a half-unit play—but that game’s low-scoring result is still surprising to me. It’s probably best if we chalk up the dud from Dallas to all the personnel missing from their offense, but perhaps it’s time to start fading them in general when playing outdoors on the road. I also may simply need to respect Kansas City’s defense more now that they’ve shut down or slowed a variety of quality offenses in recent weeks.