Top 5 Week 12 Matchups
Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season marches on, the data will change and not that it is Week 12, the numbers shown will be based on a rolling 10-week data set.
Each week until the end of the fantasy football season I will be looking at five matchups to target or avoid based on updated aFPA data.
Week 12 Matchups
Tyrod Taylor vs. New York Jets
Does Tyrod Taylor have the ability to string two straight strong performances together? If the Jets play like they have the past 10 weeks, then yes! The Jets defense is 29th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed five straight signal callers to top 259 passing yards and at least two passing touchdowns. I wish I could predict another two rushing touchdown day for Taylor, but he can spread the wealth through the air and collect enough rushing yards to raise his fantasy floor. Taylor should be a popular streaming option Week 12.
Myles Gaskin vs. Carolina Panthers
It is an odd trend but Gaskin has alternated good and bad performances for the majority of the season. Guess who just came off one of his best performances of 2021?
The Carolina Panthers remain a top-five overall defense according to aFPA and are third against running backs. Carolina has allowed pass-catching backs to collect fantasy points, but players such as Brandon Bolden, Cordarrelle Patterson, and James White can be considered pass-catching specialists compared to Gaskin. Gaskin is more of a flex option Week 12.
Patriots Receivers vs. Tennessee Titans
Pass funnel alert!
Tennessee is sixth in aFPA to opposing running backs, but 23rd and 29th to opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers, respectively. 11 of Mac Jones’ 22 passes Week 11 went to his wideouts for 135 of his 207 passing yards. Bill Belichick is the smartest coach in NFL history and will have a plan to attack Tennessee’s porous pass defense. Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor, and Jakobi Meyers are all viable in Week 12, especially in full-point PPR formats where catches matter and their lack of touchdown upside is somewhat mitigated.
Ricky Seals-Jones or John Bates vs. Seattle Seahawks
It is unknown if Ricky Seals-Jones (hip) will be active in Week 12, but if he is, roll out the red carpet for a TE1 game. The Seahawks defense is the second-worst defense against tight ends according to aFPA. Seattle is top 10 against opposing wideouts, so a few more targets could/should be funneled towards RSJ. If Seals-Jones misses Week 12, John Bates makes for a low-rostered streaming option if you are hurting at the position. He has three receptions in each of the past two games without RSJ hurt/inactive.
Ryan Tannehill @ New England Patriots
Tannehill has had a rocky season, to say the least, and will face the number two defense in offensive aFPA allowed on the road. Tannehill has one receiver – A.J. Brown – and if Bill Belichick decides to erase him on offense, it will be a long day for the veteran QB. Tennessee could be without Brown (hand) and Marcus Johnson (hamstring) Week 12, and the lack of consistency from Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, the newness of Dez Fitzpatrick, and lack of production from any tight end is all you need to fade Ryan Tannehill Week 12.
