Game Flowbotics: Week 13 Picks Against the Spread

Dec 02, 2021

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With only six more weeks to go in the regular season, bye weeks are finally starting to wrap up, and that means fuller slates of NFL games to expand our options in the betting market. As always, I’m here in Week 13 to collate pace and efficiency data from Football Outsiders on the Game Flowbotics spreadsheet, then analyze that data to bet over/unders and make picks against the spread.

Accountability

Last week, I went 2-4 with my picks for a loss of 1.38 units. Year to date, my record is 50-43-1 (53.8%) and I’m up 4.75 units overall. The silver lining of last week’s horrible performance is that two of my losses were only half-unit bets, but it doesn’t really soften the blow of picking twice as many losers as winners. The Thanksgiving holiday and some other outside factors distracted me last week, and I relied too heavily on my prior assumptions with a few too many road favorites. I won’t go into detail on all my losses, but there were red flags I missed for each of them that I might have identified with more study of the matchups. It’s no one’s fault but my own, and it was the kick in the pants I needed to refocus and tighten up my process for the home stretch of the regular season.