NFL Week 15 Lookahead Lines Report

Trying to predict where each game's line is going to re-open isn't complicated, but it's invaluable.

Remember, friends don't let friends bet NFL sides on game day. I understand the appeal of getting action down on a game that's about to kick off, but please, for the love of all things sacred, don't do it. In my opinion, the only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, which is an indication the book feels they've priced the game correctly. Unless you're waiting later in the week because you're betting five-to-six figures on a side, your +EV increases if you can get down on a number before it's sharpened by the whales.

Each week of the season, I provide a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of lookahead lines. This brief lookahead window provides a sneak peek at how teams are valued by bookmakers prior to the start of the week. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening after the previous week's games are complete. These lines are a true indicator of how bookmakers value each team, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down you'd like, depending on your unit sizing. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, and that is easier to do once you know what the opening number was.

When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. At times, it ends up being the best of the number, which is ideal. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 14 evaluation of the team and market, I'm going to have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 15.

For reference, I'll be using the initial odds released by Westgate back in May to show you how the game opened. You can use the game tiles below to find the best number, and the spread listed is based on the home team:

Week 15 Lookahead Lines Takeaways

I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. For the most part, these quirks are already baked into the number, but there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market. Also, bye weeks are over! Back to the full slate. Let's dig in.

Chiefs @ Chargers (+3)

As noted here before, shorting rookie head coaches on Thursday night is ideal. This is the seventh time a rookie head coach is playing on a Thursday this season, and Brandon Staley is looking to do what the other six failed to do—win.

Both teams are big home favorites in Week 14, so I don't anticipate a move unless a key injury or COVID-19 situation pops up.

Jets @ Dolphins (-7)

The Dolphins passed on an early-season bye post-London with the hopes of benefiting from a late-season break heading into December. I hope they enjoy it. When they lost seven straight earlier this season, it looked like a questionable move, but after winning five consecutive games heading into the bye, they're set up favorably to make a run at a Wild Card berth. A strong showing from the Jets against the Saints could, ah, who am I kidding? A strong showing from the Jets?! This likely sits at seven when the line re-opens.

Football Team @ Eagles (-2.5)

The bottom of the NFC playoff picture is wide open, and both of these clubs have a shot to make it. Even more, the Football Team could claw their way back into the division race with a Week 14 win at home against Dallas. With the Eagles on a bye and a Washington win over Dallas well within the range of outcomes, this number is likely to move closer to a pick'em than it is to move to Philly -3.

Patriots @ Colts (+1)

With New England and Indianapolis resting in Week 14, both clubs lose the in-season rest advantage against their opponent. There's also little that could happen in the court of public opinion that'll move this number, but since most bettors don't look ahead, I expect some buy-back on the Colts when this opens. I anticipate this oscillating between one on both sides next Saturday.

Cowboys @ Giants (+10)

The Giants are a bit of a mess, which is the standard operating procedure for them of late. We don't know who'll be under center here for New York, but expectations should be low no matter who gets the start. With that said, this is the third-straight road game for the Cowboys. That makes me leary, especially when we're being asked to lay such a big number on the road in the division. I don't think you need to act early on this, and I know it won't feel good, but the Giants are the side.

Titans @ Steelers (+2.5)

If we're ignoring records and just looking at how these teams have played lately, and more importantly, how their active rosters are set up, how can the Titans be favored on the road? Perhaps a Week 13 bye, plus another 10 days before this one kicks off can work in the Titans' favor, but this is a league-average roster at best right now. They limped into the bye, getting their doors blown off by the Texans and Patriots, and while I expect them to bounce back and beat the Jaguars in Week 14, I think they're a coin-flip at best on the road in Pittsburgh. I'll take Pittsburgh on the Moneyline here, but also give me the Steelers and the points.

Packers @ Ravens (+2)

We don't see the Ravens posted as home dogs very often, and if they win on the road in Cleveland in Week 14, I believe they'll get enough action to move this closer to a pick'em if it reopens at +2. I don't think I have an appetite for it, though. The Packers are getting healthy, with both David Bakhtiari and Jaire Alexander set to return soon, while the Ravens have lost Marlon Humphrey among others over the past couple of weeks. Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry won't be able to exploit that loss like Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams can. I'm going to wait on this, but eventually back the Pack.

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