Breakout Receiver Model: Week 15

Dec 15, 2021

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The Breakout Receiver Model returns for Week 15. We had another 30%-plus hit rate week in Week 14, and with the bye weeks behind us, this week's model has a ton of great breakout recommendations to dig into this week.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, have recalibrated and reconfigured the receiver "buy-low" model from years past in order to better identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends who might be on the verge of a breakout performance. For the uninitiated, the breakout receiver model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than their recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily-weights the last three weeks of data.

Last Week's Results

Hits

Breakout Receiver Model: Week 14, Hits
Player	Team	Position	XFP - Last 3	Week 14	XFP-Diff.
Mark Andrews	BAL	TE	16.6	23	6.4
Chase Claypool	PIT	WR	12.7	13.5	0.8
Jarvis Landry	CLE	WR	11.5	12.6	1.1
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	WR	9.8	22.8	13
Marvin Jones	JAX	WR	9.1	10	0.9
Jared Cook	LAC	TE	8.5	7.8	-0.7
Damiere Byrd	CHI	WR	8.1	14.6	6.5
Tyreek Hill	KC	WR	8	9.6	1.6
Austin Hooper	CLE	TE	7.6	11.5	3.9

With multiple injuries in the San Francisco secondary, the Bengals’ Ja'Marr Chase feasted on backups, scoring the seventh-most fantasy points of any receiver in Week 14. Despite Lamar Jackson going down, Mark Andrews still managed to catch all 11 targets, en route to a TE2 overall performance. While the Browns’ Week 15 looks like it could be a mess to project, last week was quite a success for the Cleveland passing game, as Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper combined for over 24 fantasy points, and scored a combined 5.0 over expectations last weekend.

Misses

Breakout Receiver Model: Week 14, Misses
Player	Team	Position	XFP - Last 3	Week 14	XFP-Diff.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	GB	WR	16.7	3.5	-13.2
Michael Gallup	DAL	WR	14.5	8.5	-6
Darnell Mooney	CHI	WR	14.4	2.4	-12
DK Metcalf	SEA	WR	12.7	6.3	-6.4
Dalton Schultz	DAL	TE	11.4	0.9	-10.5
Terry McLaurin	WAS	WR	11.2	0	-11.2
Cedrick Wilson	DAL	WR	11	2.8	-8.2
Zay Jones	LV	WR	10.5	3	-7.5
Travis Kelce	KC	TE	10	4.2	-5.8
Kyle Pitts	ATL	TE	9.9	8.6	-1.3
Tre'Quan Smith	NO	WR	9.8	4.8	-5
Darius Slayton	NYG	WR	9.7	0	-9.7
Marquise Brown	BAL	WR	9.6	6.6	-3
Courtland Sutton	DEN	WR	8.9	1.4	-7.5
Cole Kmet	CHI	TE	8.9	3.2	-5.7
James O'Shaughnessy	JAX	TE	7.9	4.1	-3.8
Foster Moreau	LV	TE	7.2	2.8	-4.4

Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Darnell Mooney drastically disappointed while facing each other on Sunday night football, despite that game smashing its middling Vegas total, with 75 total points scored. Dalton Schultz saw just three looks despite the Cowboys passing 39 times against one of the worst defenses in the league (via aFPA), leading to just 0.9 fantasy points, his lowest total of the 2021 season.