4for4 Betting Recap: Week 16
Welcome to the 4for4 football betting recap. My name is Dan Rivera and I am in charge of tracking bets from Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, Sam Hoppen, Greg Smith, Anthony Stalter, TJ Calkins and Dalton Kates. Each week, I track their bets and provide feedback after the Monday Night Football game ends. If you have not found it, I track them all here in this 4for4 Tracker. Make sure you switch to the right person and sport.
When you look at anyone in the 2021 NFL, you will see some yellow blocks. There are two points you need to know:
- You will see a weekly tracker; this just lets you look at anyone on any given week. This is what I like to call the micro tracker.
- The big yellow box has most of the plays broken down by position, prop type, totals, spreads, etc. The total units won or lost will differ from this deep dive version because certain plays didn’t fit into the deep dive. For example, Ryan Noonan bet the Patriots to make the playoffs. It doesn’t fit into any of the weekly bets during the NFL season.
Why do I do this? When tracking NFL bets, 99% of all bets anyone makes are working juice (meaning you have to lay more money down than you would win). This tracker is far superior compared to other trackers. Other trackers don’t have bets broken down by type, it is just simply a tracker. To me, that isn’t helpful. I want the data (picks) to tell a story so I can help whoever is making the picks win more. With the juice, you are better off avoiding losers than you are winning. My goal is to help anyone I track to avoid losers or have them attack successful areas. When you look at the deep dive table, be careful if one area looks good or bad. The sample size is key to that deep dive table and a small sample can get very skewed in one direction.
Ninety-nine percent of all plays tracked are to win one unit or 0.5 units. You will get maybe one, max two plays from any one bet to win more than one unit.
With that being said, let's look at Week 16!
Skewed Stats Alert: Connor, Ryan and Sam all hit a 37-1 bet in Week 8, skewing their props up for the year. The weekly and year-to-date records will include it but the analysis was removed since it carried so much of them that week. All three of them risked 0.25 units to win 9.25 units. The prop was Elijah Mitchell to lead the league in rushing yards for Sunday games only.
Ryan Noonan
Week 16: 6-10, 37.50%, -4.91 units
YTD: 153-138-1 52.40%, 15.16 units
Dan’s Analysis: Ryan is coming off one of his worse weeks of the year. Let's focus on the good: He continues to do well in WR props (45-34) and team totals (24-14).
Connor Allen
Week 16: 6-4, 60.00%, 1.24 units
YTD: 144-110, 56.69%, 35.22 units
Dan’s Analysis: Connor continues his good run! He's been profitable in 12 of the past 13 weeks, with his lone losing week being a small one (-0.3 units). For those active in Discord, the next part won’t surprise you:
A lot of things go well together:
- Campfires & s’mores
- Peanut butter & chocolate
- Connor Allen & bad QBs unders
This week I wanted to analyze Connor's bad QBs unders. This is how it breaks down in terms of win/loss record and units won/loss:
- Davis Mills: 3-2, +0.75 units
- Jared Goff: 1-1, -0.15 units
- Trevor Lawrence: 1-1, +0.4 units
- Mike White: 0-2, -2.3 units
- Cam Newton: 2-0, +2 units
- Andy Dalton: 0-1, -1.14 units
- Zach Wilson: 3-0, +3 units
- Ian Book: 1-0, +1 unit
- Mike Glennon: 2-0, +2 units
- Total: 13-7, +5.56 units
This list is a bit subjective, but these names are players most would agree stink this season. I will update this again after Week 18.
Sam Hoppen
Week 16: 1-1, 50%, -0.05 units
YTD: 39-32, 54.93%, 14.54 units
Dan’s Analysis: Not much from Sam this week as he only had two plays for a very small loss. Sam does continue to do well on QB plays with a record of 11-6 but his WR plays are only 13-14.
Greg Smith
Week 16: 2-2, 50.00%, -0.15 units
YTD: 68-62-1, 51.91%, 3.70 units
Dan’s Analysis: Another handicapper who had a light week with a very small loss. Greg is 35-26 betting against the spread in what continues to be his best area.
Dalton Kates
Week 16: 12.00 units
YTD: 25.94 units
Dan’s Analysis: Dalton is the Weekend Specialist at 4for4 and actually the one who tipped everyone off to the Elijah Mitchell most rushing yards Sunday only bet from Week 8. If you look at his name on the tracker, you will notice a lot of long shots, an area he has done well this year. If you didn’t read his Week 10 article, Dalton has hit some specials already but he wasn’t “technically” giving out 4for4 picks yet so you will be seeing me reiterate each week his tracked record versus actual record is going to be different in the tracker. Using his Week 10 article, Dalton started at 16.8 units just betting specials only.
What you don’t see from Dalton is a win-loss record. Since Dalton is working with a lot of long shots, a win-loss record is a bad way to measure him because so many long shots are losers and one winner completely changes a week and YTD record when looking at units. Lastly, Dalton is doing some regular weekly props along with long shots.
Dalton finally got the variance to go his way and hit another long shot—Tee Higgins to lead the league in receiving yards (Sunday Only) at 45/1 for 0.2 units. It cashed easily! Dalton has been betting a lot of Bengals players for these types of plays and finally gets to cash one! I was a bit surprised he didn’t bet Joe Burrow to league the lead in passing but Dalton didn’t like the odds on it.
Anthony Stalter
Week 16: 1-2, 33.33%, -1.20 units
YTD: 23-25, 48.98%, -2.29 units
TJ Calkins
Week 16: 1-1, 50.00%, -0.10 units
YTD: 19-23, 45.24%, -6.30 units
Dan’s Analysis: Both Anthony and TJ suffer from small sample sizes. I just wanted them in the article as the entire 4for4 crew for NFL is being tracked by me. The record will speak for both because deep-diving them wouldn't yield much analysis.
