Week 3 NFL Betting Picks: Team and Game Totals

Sep 24, 2021

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After Week 1, we have a singular data point. After Week 2, we open up the possibility of trends. The goal here is to get ahead of trends as quickly as possible. It's difficult with such a small sample of data, but we should be drawing on a combination of the first two weeks and what we've seen and heard coming into the season about each of these teams. Bookmakers are just as likely to hold onto their priors as we are, so I'll continue to look for ways to leverage that fact as the season progresses.

Whenever possible, but especially early in the season, lean into situation-adjusted stats over raw counting stats. Utilize metrics like success rate and explosive play rates over total yards and points against. Our scheduled-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) tool is a perfect example of this. It's not a relevant metric in the context of my analysis here, but the point is, it tells a more useful truth than its more commonly used counterparts.

In this space, I'll continue to focus on what I think is the biggest inefficiency in the market, and that's individual team totals. I know leaning under is optimal, but you'll find a lot of overs here. I'm sorry.

Let's move forward and take a look at Week 3's plays.

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.