4for4 Betting Recap: Week 4

Welcome to the 4for4 football gambling recap! My name is Dan Rivera and I am in charge of tracking bets from Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, Sam Hoppen and Greg Smith. Each week, I track these four and provide feedback after the Monday Night Football game ends. If you have not found it, I track them all here in this 4for4 Tracker. Make sure you switch to the right person and sport.

When you look at anyone in the 2021 NFL, you will see some yellow blocks that recap. There are two points you need to know:

1. You will see a weekly tracker; this just lets you look at anyone on any given week. This is what I like to call the micro tracker.
2. The big yellow box has most of the plays broken down by position, prop type, totals, spreads, etc. The total units won or lost will differ from this deep dive version because certain plays didn’t fit into the deep dive. For example, Ryan Noonan bet the Patriots to make the playoffs. It doesn’t fit into any of the weekly bets during the NFL season.

Why do I do this? When tracking NFL bets, 99% of all bets anyone makes are working juice (meaning you have to lay more money down than you would win). This tracker is far superior compared to other trackers. Other trackers don’t have bets broken down by type, it is just simply a tracker. To me, that isn’t helpful. I want the data (picks) to tell a story so I can help whoever is making the picks win more. With the juice, you are better off avoiding losers than you are winning. My goal is to help anyone I track to avoid losers or have them attack areas they are having success. When you look at the deep dive table, be careful if one area looks good or bad. The sample size is key to that deep dive table and a small sample can get very skewed in one direction.

Ninety-nine percent of all plays tracked are to win 1 unit or 0.5 units. You will get maybe one, max two plays from anyone bet to win more than 1 unit.

With that being said, let's look at Week 4 and the 4for4 team's fantastic bounce-back week!

Ryan Noonan

Week 4: 13-11, 54.17%, 2.32 units

YTD: 49-42, 53.85%, 2.48 units

Ryan’s Analysis: Overtime killed me on two of my plays. Those hurt because you don’t get many OT games in a year and I had two go against me in one weekend.

I’d make the Odell Beckham Jr., Chase Edmonds and Tim Patrick plays again. All these players came up a tad short and were part of bad luck/negative variance. You can’t predict Baker Mayfield missing a wide-open Beckman 50 yards down the field, Teddy Bridgewater getting hurt or Chase Edmonds being in bad game script most of the game.

I loved the closing line value (CLV) this week. The CLV doesn’t matter, though, when the Saints are a CFL, AFL or NCAA-level type offense and struggle to throw the ball.

Dan’s Analysis: Ryan was two overtimes away from a great week, rather than a solid week. Giants-Saints and Titans-Jets cost him both of his totals for the game. Something I can’t answer right now: What are the Saints? Are they good or bad? I don’t think many people—if any—are confident in what they are as a team. Would anyone bet them for season win totals right now or to even make the playoffs? On FanDuel, their current season win total is 8.5 (-115 over/-105 under) and +118 to make plays versus -144 to miss the playoffs.

Ryan suffered some right process bad losses I'd personally tail again:

• Odell Beckham Jr. over 65.5 receiving yards. Baker Mayfield missed him a good 50+ yards downfield and Beckham was wide open.
• Jaylen Waddle over 4.5 receptions. He had three first-quarter receptions, zero the rest of the game.
• Tim Patrick over 42.5 receiving yards. Teddy Bridgewater got hurt and Drew Lock played the entire second half.
• Chase Edmonds was in a negative game script most of the game and almost went over his 4.5 receptions prop.

The wide receiver props continue to be money for Ryan—18-9 for the season, up 7.66 units. Ryan’s running back props are bad but it’s the receiving yards that bring him way down—take those out and he is 5-6 on running back props.

Connor Allen

Week 4: 10-7, 58.82%, 1.71 units

YTD: 40-43, 48.19%, -9.25 units

Connor’s Analysis: I just need to stick to my process and not be afraid to take overs when applicable and in the right situations.

Dan’s Analysis: Connor had a nice bounce-back week after a rough start the first three weeks. Unfortunately, it will take him another 2-5 weeks to continue to climb out of the hole from the negative variance he suffered from those first three weeks. I still am very confident that by the end of October or early November Connor will become profitable for the year.

Connor did suffer some bad luck from Jaylen Waddle over 4.5 receptions after Waddle recorded three receptions in the first quarter but finished with just those three catches for the game. He also had a bad beat Thursday night, betting in-game Samaje Perine under 5.5 rush yards, only for Joe Mixon to get hurt at the end of the game, providing Perine the opportunity to go over the rushing yards prop.

Sam Hoppen

Week 4: 3-2, 60%, 0.9 units

YTD: 10-10, 50%, -0.9 units

Sam’s Analysis: There is more value on under bets. There are so many more outs to those hitting, even when a player records four receptions in the first half with a 5.5 reception line, as he can easily be phased out or shut down.

Dan’s Analysis: I am going to sound like a broken record on Sam for the next few weeks, but he is tough to give a deep dive on because of the small sample size. I don’t encourage him, or anyone, to be betting large volume if that isn’t your thing just because you want some results. That spells disaster long term and I expect Sam to slowly grind it out. He is currently 5-2 on quarterback plays for 3.25 units, but 2-4 on wide receiver plays for -2.2 units.

Greg Smith

Week 4: 6-3, 66.67%, 3.66 units

YTD: 19-19, 50%, -2.04 units

Dan’s Analysis: Another guy I will sound like a broken record on, Greg is working in some of the most efficient gambling markets out there. What I mean is that a half-point to a full point is the difference between having a winning weekend versus a losing weekend. With totals, you will see 1- or 2-point swings but both of these markets are by far the hardest to win in the long term. For example, in Week 3, Greg had such bad beats on Raiders -3.5 and under 45.5. If the Raiders do their job and don’t allow Dolphins to score in the end, he goes 4-4 instead of 2-6. That series had a net swing of 4.2 units that cost him 2.2 units.

This week, Greg had bounced back nicely! He was on the right side of the Giants-Saints total but it went into overtime and that cost him. The Browns-Vikings game was something interesting as Baker Mayfield looked beyond awful, and no one predicted that. If you do enough plays over a week, you will have some plays you just simply whiff on and have to move on from.

Futures Bets (Post-Week 4)

This is something I will be looking at after every four weeks or so. It is hard to gauge some of these plays early into the season, unless players are hurt or miss significant time. These plays can change on a dime and be winners or losers because of a one- or two-game stretch. I am not sure how many 4for4 betting newcomers saw these or were in the Discord when these picks were coming out. If you bet these and forgot, now is a good time to look at where these players and teams stand currently.

Ryan has some fantastic futures and I'm not seeing a lot of bad ones. He has Breshad Perriman and David Montgomery unders. David Montogmery is hurt and Breshad Perriman doesn’t have a team currently. The only concern is Breshad Perriman must play a snap for this play to count as most books require him to take at least one snap. This bet would be cancelled and a sure victory becomes a bet that feels like a loss despite getting your money back. Hopefully Breshad Perriman gets a snap at some point this season.

Ryan has four season win totals that look great. The Giants and the Bears under 7.5, both are currently sitting at 1-3 and I'm not sure either team wins another seven games to push it over. The Bills over 11 wins and Bucs over 12 wins—both sit at 3-1. As long as these teams stay decently healthy, they both should hit the over.

Ryan’s two worse futures are the Patriots to make the playoffs and the Washington Football Team to win the division. I think Patriots are still alive for the playoffs but it doesn’t look good because they have some tough opponents and are currently 1-3. The Patriots can’t lose another five games because that puts you at eight losses, making it hard to reach the playoffs. The Washington Football Team lost Ryan Fitzpatrick for most of the year and their rest of the year schedule is beyond brutal—I feel confident this bet is dead four weeks into the season.

Connor has a lot of bets I think cash for him but some bets will be super close. Connor has Lions under five wins and Texans under four wins, both teams stink and look like 1-to-3 win teams. He also has Jalen Hurts over 3700.5 passing yards, who currently sits at 1,167 yards. He needs to average 195 yards a game to hit the over.

Connor’s worse futures are anything Washington Football Team-related. He has three futures tied to them and I plan on marking all three losses since Ryan Fitzpatrick will have missed so much time.

A lot of his other bets are way too in the air for me to guess because I can argue either side in early October.