Top 5 Week 8 Matchups
Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season marches on, the data will change and once we hit Week 12, the numbers shown will be based on a rolling 10-week data set.
Each week until the end of the fantasy football season I will be looking at five matchups to target or avoid based on updated aFPA data.
Arizona Cardinals Offense vs. Green Bay Packers
Week 8’s two-team bye setup is not the gauntlet Week 7’s was, but losing Marquise Brown, Rashod Bateman, Henry Ruggs, Mark Andrews, and Darren Waller is substantial. The Cardinals offense gets the #23 defense in total offense aFPA, including the 27th ranked against quarterbacks and wide receivers. Zach Ertz also gets a strong matchup against a Packers' secondary that is 25th in aFPA to tight ends. Depth receivers such as Christian Kirk, A.J. Green, and even Rondale Moore are in play if you are without one of the players mentioned above.
The Cardinals may be able to run the Packers out of the desert Thursday night.
Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Lock vs. Washington Football Team
Bridgewater was more ‘Mehddy’ than Teddy on Thursday Night Football but gets the WFT defense at home Week 8. Washington is last in aFPA against quarterbacks and receivers, and is last in total fantasy points allowed to offenses. After allowing two passing touchdowns combined in Weeks 1 and 2, WFT has allowed 17 in Weeks 3-7. If Bridgewater does not play because of injuries he sustained in Week 6, Drew Lock is in play as a streamer.
Kenneth Gainwell @ Detroit Lions
Miles Sanders (ankle) is unlikely to play in Week 8, opening the door for the rookie. Gainwell gained 61 yards on nine total touches against the Las Vegas Raiders after Sanders was injured. The Lions defense is four spots below Vegas’s in 4for4’s aFPA rankings against running backs. Detroit put up their best effort against the run in Week 7, and return home to face an Eagles offense with three players who are dangerous out of the backfield. Gainwell should get the most rushing looks with Boston Scott getting his through the air, but it is clear the Eagles prefer Gainwell to Scott. Scott has only been active twice this season.
Cole Beasley vs. Miami Dolphins
Opposing receivers, in general, are getting theirs against the Dolphins secondary, but with byes in effect, you may have to go three deep on a team’s depth chart for a receiver. Beasley was already a WR4/Flex weekly, but slot receivers have been especially successful against the Fins. Beasley’s 4/36/0 Week 2 is the floor for slot receivers against Miami and that was because of a blowout. Slot options have collected at least 36 yards and four catches or a touchdown in every game against Miami. The Dolphins offense is healthier and are already at the point where playing spoiler is in the cards.
Bengals defense @ New York Jets
The Jets are without Zach Wilson. Joe Flacco is back in town but for at least Week 8, expect Mike White to start. The Jets' offense allows the most fantasy points to opposing defenses and are 9.5-point home underdogs. There is a chance the Bengals' offense lays an egg after a convincing win against Baltimore, but it would be a bigger surprise if the Bengals' defense does not produce. The Bengals are top 10 in sacks per game and average more on the road than at home.
