Breakout Receiver Model: Week 9

Nov 03, 2021

Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images

<p>The Breakout Receiver Model returns for Week 9, and this week, and while we didn't run quite as hot as last week, the model still had some strong hits, including strong performances from Amari Cooper and Tyler Lockett. We still have a ton of star players to recommend, including some who fell short a week ago. Let's dig into the model's hits and misses, and check out the recommendations for the week ahead.</p>

<h3>About the Breakout Receiver Model</h3>

<p>The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, have recalibrated and reconfigured the receiver "buy-low" model from years past in order to better identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends who might be on the verge of a breakout performance. For the uninitiated, the breakout receiver model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than their recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily-weights the last three weeks of data.</p>

<h2>Last Week's Results</h2>

<table border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" class="table-4for4 sticky-enabled sortable" style="">
<caption>Week 8 Breakout Receiver Model, Hits</caption>
<thead>
<tr class="odd" style="">
<th height="" style="" width="">Player</th>
<th height="" style="" width="">Team</th>
<th height="" style="" width="">Position</th>
<th height="" style="" width="">XFP - Last 3</th>
<th height="" style="" width="">Week 8</th>
<th height="" style="" width="">XFP-Diff.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Amari Cooper</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">DAL</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">WR</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">13.9</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">22.2</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">8.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Tee Higgins</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">CIN</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">WR</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">11.2</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">11.7</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">0.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Brandin Cooks</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">HOU</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">WR</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">11.1</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">17.3</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">6.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Tyler Lockett</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">SEA</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">WR</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">10.2</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">20.2</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">10</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">T.J. Hockenson</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">DET</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">TE</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">10.2</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">13.9</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">3.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Keenan Allen</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">LAC</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">WR</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">9.3</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">16.7</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">7.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Mecole Hardman</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">KC</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">WR</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">8.7</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">8.8</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Darnell Mooney</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">CHI</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">WR</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">8.1</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">9.4</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">1.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Dan Arnold</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">JAX</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">TE</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">7.9</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">10.8</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">2.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Tyler Conklin</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">MIN</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">TE</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">7.6</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">8.2</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">0.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

<h3>Misses</h3>

<table border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" class="table-4for4 sticky-enabled sortable" style="">
<caption>Week 8 Breakout Receiver Model, Misses</caption>
<thead>
<tr class="even" style="">
<th height="" style="" width="">Player</th>
<th height="" style="" width="">Team</th>
<th height="" style="" width="">Position</th>
<th height="" style="" width="">XFP - Last 3</th>
<th height="" style="" width="">Week 8</th>
<th height="" style="" width="">XFP-Diff.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Travis Kelce</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">KC</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">TE</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">15.7</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">2.7</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">-13</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">D.J. Moore</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">CAR</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">WR</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">15.6</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">7.9</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">-7.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Justin Jefferson</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">MIN</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">WR</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">14.1</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">3.1</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">-11</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Marvin Jones</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">JAX</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">WR</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">12.9</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">6</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">-6.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Robby Anderson</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">CAR</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">WR</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">12.1</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">0</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">-12.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Allen Robinson</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">CHI</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">WR</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">10.9</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">3.6</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">-7.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">DeVonta Smith</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">PHI</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">WR</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">10.8</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">2</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">-8.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Tim Patrick</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">DEN</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">WR</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">10.7</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">7.9</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">-2.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Kenny Stills</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">NO</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">WR</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">10.2</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">0</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">-10.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Demarcus Robinson</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">KC</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">WR</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">9.6</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">2.3</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">-7.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Quez Watkins</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">PHI</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">WR</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">9.3</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">2.8</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">-6.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Jared Cook</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">LAC</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">TE</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">8.3</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">3.5</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">-4.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Durham Smythe</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">MIA</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">TE</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">8.2</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">0</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">-8.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Cole Kmet</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">CHI</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">TE</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">8</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">3.9</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">-4.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd" style="">
<td height="" style="" width="">Ian Thomas</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">CAR</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">TE</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">7.1</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">1.5</td>
<td height="" style="" width="">-5.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>