NBA Player Prop Bets: Allen Gives More Than Cheap Shots

Jan 21, 2023

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Most of the focus will be on the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs but there is still a seven-game slate tonight in the NBA. With juicy matchups and star injuries, there is value to be had.

To help determine value in your daily prep, check out 4for4’s tools. The Player Prop Tool will show projected value on listed props and you can customize the search to your liking, the Stat Explorer shows a specific stat for a player and how it compares to that night’s line and even allows you to customize the time frame you are looking at, and the Player Prop Finder shows what the line is at for all of a player’s props at all the primary books. Do not forget the Player Prop Odds Table and Player Splits Tool as well and make sure to get involved in Discord, where staff and subscribers talk through their favorite plays. Let’s make it a profitable Wednesday.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (January 21, 2023)

Grayson Allen Over 2.5 Assists (+125 at PointsBet)

While Grayson Allen will never win any popularity contests, he is still a player who can provide value with the absences the Bucks have had in their lineup.

Allen is generally a connector piece in the Milwaukee offense. When someone drives and needs to kick the ball out, it usually goes to the weakside wing if the defense is doing its job properly, and Allen occupies that spot on the floor a lot. From that point, he can attack the closeout and dump the ball off or move it onto the corner where an open shooter is. When Giannis Antetokounmpo is in the game, that role serves less of a purpose with him being able to get to the basket at will. Antetokounmpo is missing his fourth straight game today, making Allen a more important part of the offense.

In three games this year where Antetokounmpo has been out and Khris Middleton has played, Allen has averaged 3.3 assists on 7.0 potential assists and has gone over this prop twice. Last game Allen was hot shooting and the Raptors are notorious for allowing threes to be attempted, so Allen was not looking to play-make as much. That is not the case today with the Cavs, who are responsible above the break but the logical pass to the corner for Allen should be wide open with Cleveland allowing the fifth-most attempts from the corners the last two weeks. In two games against the Cavs this season, with Giannis playing in both, Allen has averaged four assists on eight potential assists and gone over this prop both times.

With two stars out, Milwaukee does not have a clear second assist man on the court but Allen has come closest in the starting unit to becoming that and there is value in his over as a result.

Risk: 1 unit on PointsBet to win 1.25 units. (Playable to +100)