NBA Player Prop Bets: Brook Beasts in Atlanta

Jan 11, 2023

Dustin Satloff/Getty Images

In the prop market, we must balance the player and who they are versus the matchup and what the opponent allows. The props today lean more toward the matchup category with hints of players being able to take advantage of what the opponent chooses to allow. When a matchup shows an extreme edge, there should be latitude in how a player or their role is viewed to see different possibilities if presented—that's what is happening within these plays.

Check out all the tools 4for4 has to aid in your daily prep. The Player Prop Tool will show projected value on listed props and you can customize the search to your liking, the Stat Explorer shows a specific stat for a player and how it compares to that night’s line and even allows you to customize the time frame you are looking at, and the Player Prop Finder shows what the line is at for all of a player’s props at all the primary books. Do not forget the Player Prop Odds Table and Player Splits Tool as well and make sure to get involved in Discord, where staff and subscribers talk through their favorite plays. Let’s make it a profitable Wednesday.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (January 11, 2023)

Brook Lopez Over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110 at BetMGM)

When there are matchups to exploit in the betting world it is best to not be shy and take advantage of every chance given. That is the case with Brook Lopez tonight.

Since Clint Capela exited the lineup, centers have feasted on Atlanta. In 10 such games, starting centers are averaging 32.2 points + rebounds + assists (PRA), and the last six have gone for double-doubles. Only one starting center has not cleared this PRA number… but his backup did and he also recorded a double-double. In the last two weeks, the Hawks are allowing the fifth-most points to centers and the most rebounds. Even with two days off, this is Atlanta’s first game home after a four-game west coast trip, so some fatigue is to be expected.

In the last two weeks, Lopez has been averaging 22.3 PRA and has gone over this number in three of his last four. While he does not have the traditional role with Giannis Antetokounmpo next to him, Lopez does fit the body type of the centers who have been giving Onyeka Okongwu the most fits: Bigger-bodied guys who operate from the post offensively and rely on physicality for their rebounds. The number may be lower than the other center production lately as well because in the first three matchups Lopez averaged 19.3 PRA, but those were all with Capela in the lineup. Considering the offensive issues the Bucks have had, not taking advantage of the matchup would be foolish and they are smart enough to know that.

Risk: 1.1 units on BetMGM to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)