NBA Player Prop Bets: Dinwiddie Sets Up Nets

Feb 13, 2023

NBA Player Prop Bets (February 13, 2023)

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As the mass of players that were traded have started to make their debuts in their new locations and new roles, data points are starting to appear on who that player will be in their new context. While plenty can change and small sample sizes are not very reliable, this is a time to attempt to project what can be sustainable from an unreliable sample size. That is the basis of two of the props today.

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Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (February 13, 2023)

Spencer Dinwiddie Over 5.5 Assists (+105 at BetMGM)

With all the changes in Brooklyn, Spencer Dinwiddie has become the primary ball-handler, and this season he has proven to be proficient at going over this prop in that role.

In two games with the Nets so far, Dinwiddie has recorded six assists each game and is averaging 11.5 potential assists. When in Dallas with Luka Doncic out of the lineup, Dinwiddie averaged 7.8 assists. It is an interesting comparison in terms of the role players around him because like with the Mavs, the Nets play a lot of guys who do not create their own shot and are dependent on the primary ball-handler. That inherently makes each touch more valuable for Dinwiddie, when the average shot has a higher likelihood to be assisted.

The scope of each touch has improved with Brooklyn for Dinwiddie, too. Of course, this is off a two-game sample, so there is room for at least some regression but with the Nets, Dinwiddie’s time of possession is 6.9 seconds. That number is very nice for going over this prop when the players on the season who have an average time of possession in that area are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, LaMelo Ball, Chris Paul, and Tyrese Haliburton. Dinwiddie is not as good of a player as them but you also would never see any of them with an assist prop at 5.5.

Another reason to have optimism around two games where Dinwiddie just went over the prop is the Nets shot 42% and 40% in those games. Even a bad shooting team will perform better than that most nights, so there is room for positive regression as well. A matchup against the Knicks does mean a slower game with fewer possessions. However, in the last game Dinwiddie went over, he do so against a team shooting poorly and against a Sixers team that is 27th in pace the last two weeks. So, it is on par and adds even more to the value of the prop.

Risk: 1 unit on BetMGM to win 1.05 units. (Playable to -116)