NBA Player Prop Bets: Fred VanVleet, Honorary Splash Bro

Jan 27, 2023

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The last week of January comes to a close with an unusually small NBA slate for a Friday, as we only have five games on the slate. Despite the low number of games, we have a slate full of superstars and injury implications, so there will be no shortage of player props to bet on. My three favorite props for the slate are outlined below.

Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process. With the shameless plug (that I am not explicitly paid for!), let’s get into the props for today.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (January 27, 2023)

Fred VanVleet Over 19.5 Points (-119 at Caesars)

The Raptors have been an underwhelming team this season with Fred VanVleet being underwhelming in his own right, but Friday presents him with a great opportunity to improve his overall disappointing play and build on a recent stretch of good play.

Speaking of this stretch, over his last five games, VanVleet has averaged 28.4 points on 19.8 shots per game, shooting a remarkable 43.8% from three over this span. Coming into Friday in such good form, an impending matchup with the defending champs looks like a great opportunity to continue this stretch.

On the season, the Warriors have allowed 118.0 total points per game, ranking 27th out of the 30 NBA teams, while ranking bottom-10 in three-pointers allowed per game (23rd, 13.0) and also allowing the most free throws per game (26.5). He should get to tee off against a weak defensive backcourt in Steph Curry and Jordan Poole while Draymond Green is focused on Pascal Siakam, which should open up VanVleet even more on the offensive end.

In a game with a rising total and a tight spread (five points), VanVleet should see a ton of volume in a pace-up spot, catering to the over.

Risk: 1.19 units on Caesars to win 1 unit.