NBA Player Prop Bets: Gettin' Jiggy With Josh Giddey

Jan 15, 2023

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Despite there being three NFL Wild Card games on Sunday, we have an afternoon and evening full of NBA basketball, which naturally translates to an afternoon and evening full of NBA player props. My three favorites are outlined below.

Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process. With the shameless plug (that I am not explicitly paid for!), let’s get into the props for today.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (January 15, 2023)

Ben Simmons Over 7.5 Rebounds (-135 at PointsBet)

First and foremost, we are avoiding any and all Ben Simmons points props. Instead, we’re going to focus on something Simmons excels at—hitting the glass.

Simmons posted nine rebounds last game with Kevin Durant sidelined, tying Nic Claxton for the team lead, while posting 14 rebounding chances. This is a consistent trend we’ve seen with Simmons when Durant is off the floor. He posts a 14.5% rebounding rate with Durant off the court this season, averaging 9.6 rebounds per 36 minutes.

On top of the uptick in rebounding with Durant out, Simmons gets the benefit of taking on the worst rebounding team in basketball, as the Thunder’s 47.3 rebounds allowed per game ranks dead last in the NBA. Getting even more granular, they rank 30th in offensive rebounds allowed (12.2) and 28th in defensive rebounds allowed (35.1).

There’s a good chance this climbs to 8.5 when it closes, making over 7.5 a bet to hit on Sunday.

Risk: 1.35 units on PointsBet to win 1 unit.