NBA Player Prop Bets: History Be Damned!

Feb 07, 2023

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The trade deadline is two days away and things are quickly starting to heat up around the NBA after the Kyrie Irving trade, throwing a massive wrinkle in the DFS and betting market given the ambiguity. On top of the deadline, we’re on the precipice of history as LeBron James is a mere 36 points away from sole possession of the all-time scoring title in the NBA. All of this factors into our betting on this slate, with my three favorite player props outlined below.

Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process. With the shameless plug (that I am not explicitly paid for!), let’s get into the props for today.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (February 7, 2023)

Brandon Ingram Over 24.5 Points (-105 at DraftKings)

After we targeted Brandon Ingram’s points prop last slate only to have him scratched after publishing, we’re going right back to the well. While it may seem like a cop-out, the same exact data from two days ago applies to today, highlighted below:

“Ingram has been a usage hog since returning from a lengthy absence, despite his minutes scaling up at what feels to be a snail’s pace. Lucky for us bettors, Ingram has now eclipsed 30 minutes in three consecutive outings, a confident sign that the minutes restriction is behind him.

In his five games since returning from injury, Ingram has ranked second on the team in touches per game (65.0) while leading the team by over 10% in usage rate (35.7%, the next-closest player is Jonas Valanciunas at 25.5%). This usage rate has led to healthy volume in terms of shot output, as Ingram has taken 48 shots over his last two games while averaging 21.0 shots per game since his return.”

A matchup with the Hawks is a rather middling one, as Ingram will likely be dealing with De’Andre Hunter's defense throughout the game. Despite that fact, the data is pointing to another game of massive volume for Ingram, especially with teammate CJ McCollum likely drawing the Dejounte Murray assignment.

Risk: 1.05 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.