NBA Player Prop Bets: Let's Try This Again, Andrew Nembhard

Jan 14, 2023

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Despite the NFL Wild Card Weekend kicking off and my son’s second birthday party being on Saturday, my full focus remains on the NBA slate with a healthy amount of games to bet on (sorry, family, but I am trying to support the family by racking up the units…). We have seven total games on Saturday, with five of them falling into the normal evening slot. My player props below will focus on the evening games, leaving out the 1 PM EST Bucks-Heat game.

Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process. With the shameless plug (that I am not explicitly paid for!), let’s get into the props for today.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (January 14, 2023)

Andrew Nembhard Over 19.5 Points + Assists (-106 at FanDuel)

Sure, Andrew Nembhard let us down last night, but today is a new day and nobody has a better short-term memory than degenerate NBA bettors. Yes, I am looking in the mirror while writing this.

Nembhard couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat last night, but the underlying metrics both from a facilitating standpoint and a shot volume standpoint allude to better days ahead. He had a whopping 15 potential assists last night but was only able to record five. He also averaged 10.5 assists in two previous games without Tyrese Haliburton this season, so we can safely write off last night as an outlier from an assist perspective.

On top of the lack of assists, he was only able to convert 2-of-16 shot attempts, coming up short in the scoring department as well. While he may have failed last night, all I am fixated on is the fact he got off 16 shots. If he continues to get that type of volume (there’s no reason he shouldn’t), this is a prop that could sail over on points alone.

Risk: 1.06 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.