NBA Player Prop Bets: Mitchell Rises Over Memphis

Feb 02, 2023

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Today’s props are focused on the path of least resistance provided by the opposing defense and players that have the skills to take advantage of those opportunities.

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Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (February 2, 2023)

Donovan Mitchell Over 3.5 Three-Pointers (+122 at FanDuel)

After the 71-point explosion against the Bulls, Donovan Mitchell has come back to earth from deep but there is still plenty of reason to like an over tonight.

Mitchell is averaging 3.1 threes on 10.5 attempts per game since that output and has gone over this total only twice, but this is a volume play. In two of the nine games since Mitchell played an abnormal amount of minutes due to either getting hurt or it being his first game back and a blowout. If those games are taken out of the equation, Mitchell is averaging 3.6 threes on 11.6 attempts. The percentage is not great but the volume is there to make up for it in a plus-matchup.

The Cavs are hosting the Grizzlies, who are allowing the most above-the-break three attempts over the last two weeks and the third-most three-point attempts overall. Mitchell has taken 93.2% of his threes from above the break and with his recent lack of efficiency on the shot, the Grizzlies should be hoping Mitchell takes plenty. Mitchell should be more inclined to take threes with Jaren Jackson Jr. waiting on the back line as one of the premier shot blockers in the entire NBA. With Desmond Bane iffy to play on a back-to-back after just returning to the lineup, Mitchell should be able to get what he wants—open shots behind the arc tonight.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.22 units. (Playable to -105)