NBA Player Prop Bets: Mr. Randle Gets Boards

Jan 18, 2023

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Knowing your number or having an idea of the range in which you would play a prop can be so key in avoiding big mistakes. As much as celebrating the wins is great, sometimes there is as much relief in avoiding bad losses. Being able to determine what that range is for each prop is key and a theme with today's props is numbers being too good to ignore.

To help determine your ranges and help out in your daily prep, check out 4for4’s tools. The Player Prop Tool will show projected value on listed props and you can customize the search to your liking, the Stat Explorer shows a specific stat for a player and how it compares to that night’s line and even allows you to customize the time frame you are looking at, and the Player Prop Finder shows what the line is at for all of a player’s props at all the primary books. Do not forget the Player Prop Odds Table and Player Splits Tool as well and make sure to get involved in Discord, where staff and subscribers talk through their favorite plays. Let’s make it a profitable Wednesday.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (January 18, 2023)

Julius Randle Over 12.5 Rebounds (+102 at FanDuel)

There is a level of sticker shock when looking at a rebound number this high for a non-center but Julius Randle has earned that number of late.

Randle has become the dominant rebounder in the frontcourt, even with the size of Mitchell Robinson and RJ Barrett. In January, Randle is averaging 14.8 rebounds on 23.8 rebounding chances and has gone over this total in 7-of-8 games. Robinson still has a tendency to chase blocks and get out of position on the glass but that has allowed Randle to get more of the volume. In 2022, Randle averaged 15.4 rebounding chances and grabbed 63.1% of those chances. In 2023, he is still grabbing 62.1% of his chances. The efficiency staying what it had been with the extra volume is allowing for the astronomical rebounding numbers.

The matchup is a positive as well, even if it is against another team that wants to play big in the Wizards. In their first matchup of the year, three games ago, Randle had a gaudy 16 rebounds on 27 rebounding chances. Washington shot 38.7% from the floor, which is very likely not to repeat but there is room for regression and cover. It also shows that the efficiency numbers stay against that opponent. The Wizards are allowing the sixth-most rebounds to power forwards over the last two weeks. Randle is in a prime position to take advantage.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.02 units. (Playable to -110)