NBA Player Prop Bets: VanVleet Slyer Than a Fox

Jan 25, 2023

Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images

A change in a role can completely alter the ecosystem a player exists in and the nature of his statistical profile. That takes time for books to catch up, though, and today's props look to take advantage of that.

Check out all the tools 4for4 has to aid in your daily prep. The Player Prop Tool will show projected value on listed props and you can customize the search to your liking, the Stat Explorer shows a specific stat for a player and how it compares to that night’s line and even allows you to customize the time frame you are looking at, and the Player Prop Finder shows what the line is at for all of a player’s props at all the primary books. Do not forget the Player Prop Odds Table and Player Splits Tool as well and make sure to get involved in Discord, where staff and subscribers talk through their favorite plays. Let’s make it a profitable Wednesday.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (January 25, 2023)

Fred VanVleet Over 20.5 Points (-108 at FanDuel)

With the Raptors at a crossroads as a franchise, and Fred VanVleet’s name mentioned in trade rumors, he is playing some of his best ball of the season.

In his last four games, VanVleet has gone over this prop each time and is averaging 31.3 points. Part of the reason he has been clearing this number by such a wide margin is the hot shooting from deep, shooting 48.7% on 9.8 attempts, but it is also volume as well. In the last four games, VanVleet is averaging 20.8 shots, compared to 14.0 in the rest of January.

That is reflected in his touch time as well. In January before the last four games, VanVleet was averaging 5.3 seconds time of possession and 3.39 dribbles per possession. In the last four games, those numbers have gone up to 7.5 seconds time of possession and 4.79 dribbles per possession. With most of the offense bogging down, the ball is being put in VanVleet’s hands to create.

The Raptors are in Sacramento to take on the offensive-minded Kings, whose games average 243.03 points in the last two weeks. A game with a lack of defense and at least league average pace would lead to a better-than-normal scoring environment from what VanVleet is used to. In their first matchup this season, VanVleet went for 39 points and 25 shots and the Kings are allowing the third-most points to point guards the last two weeks. The scoring environment and the matchup bring value to VanVleet in this spot.

Risk: 1.08 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)