NCAA CBB Best Bets: It is Jelly Time in Morgantown

It’s beginning to feel a lot like college basketball season. You thought I was going to say Christmas, didn’t you?

While I’m excited as anyone to see what Santa got me this year, that doesn’t compare to my excitement for Saturday’s college hoops slate. A showdown between Houston and Alabama headlines a schedule that also includes Indiana-Arizona, Kansas-Missouri, Auburn-Memphis, Saint Mary’s-San Diego State, and so much more.

Saturday slates like this one will be the new normal, now that the college football regular season is behind us. And it gives us bettors an opportunity to cash plenty of tickets while watching compelling basketball games.

Today’s CBB Best Bets (December 10)

UAB (+5.5) at West Virginia (-110, DraftKings)

It is Jelly time in Morgantown. The Blazers, who are led by Jordan “Jelly” Walker, have a chance to pick up a signature win on Saturday when they face the Mountaineers. UAB (7-1) failed its last big test, suffering a 93-85 loss over Toledo on Nov. 11, but this team has won six games in a row since then.

What’s more interesting is the fact ShotQuality’s numbers actually believe UAB should have secured a 99-94 win over UAB. Per this tweet from ShotQuality, UAB leads the entire nation in creating high-quality looks with an average of 1.22 SQ points per possession. The Blazers like to play fast, and they get good looks at the rim and from long-range.

Walker obviously leads the way, averaging 25.7 points per game during his senior season. But the Blazers have a multitude of playmakers capable of dissecting the Mountaineers' defense. West Virginia is 7-2 on the year, losing both of its tests against teams ranked inside the top 50 in KenPom. UAB, No. 38 overall in KenPom, could actually win this game, but we will happily take the points and root for a competitive contest.

Risk: 0.55 units at DraftKings to win 0.5 units. (Playable to 4)

Alabama at Houston (Over 133.5, DraftKings)

The main event on a doozy of a college basketball Saturday is when No. 1 Houston hosts No. 8 Alabama. This is the lone matchup between two top-10 teams on the day. The Cougars (9-0) have yet to be beaten, but the Crimson Tide (7-1) are capable of giving them a scare.

My favorite bet for the marquee matchup is actually on the over. Houston is more of a defensive-oriented team, ranking second in the country in defensive efficiency. But one has to assume the Crimson Tide will be able to speed this game up a bit. They rank 42nd in adjust tempo, sporting a No. 22 offense.

This will be the best offense that Houston has faced to start the year, which will certainly challenge the team’s top mark in defensive effective field goal percentage (36.2%). Alabama ranks 19th in the nation in three-point rate, and if shots are falling, this total is going to be a bit higher than your typical Houston game. In the end, give me Houston to win by a 73-65 margin.

Risk: 1.1 units at DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Playable to 137.5)

Kansas (-3) at Missouri (-110, Caesars)

Believing in the Jayhawks proved to be a mistake in the last free college basketball picks column, but I’m not afraid to go back to the well in a much-anticipated rivalry matchup. The Border War was renewed last year, in which Kansas dismantled Missouri for a 102-65 win in Lawrence.

This year’s meeting should be more competitive, and not just because the game will take place in Columbia. The Tigers are off to a 9-0 start to the year, and showing real improvement under Dennis Gates. Despite the start, however, Missouri has actually fallen from being ranked 41st at KenPom down to No. 50 ahead of this matchup. That’s because the Tigers haven't played anybody yet, facing one team (Wichita State) ranked higher than 174th on KenPom.

The Jayhawks are ranked 11th on KenPom after winning the national last year. Their lone hiccup was a 64-50 loss to Tennessee in the championship game of the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament. Saturday’s matchup will be in a hostile environment, but the Jayhawks have already passed multiple tough tests on the young season.

Truth be told, I hit the under on 160.5 when the lines first opened. That line is long gone, but I do still like the under at anything 154 or above. For the purpose of this column, though, I’ll place a bet on KU to cover a spread of three points or better.

Risk: 0.55 units at Caesars to win 0.5 units. (Playable to -3)

For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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