2022 NFL Draft: Top-5 Pick Odds, Predictions & Bets

Every year someone asks me what my favorite time of the year is as a sports bettor. I’m sure they anticipate me saying the NFL or NCAAB season as those are the two core sports I bet on. The answer is neither one of those sports, though, it’s the NFL Draft. Every year I have more action on the draft than half an NFL season combined. You might think that’s insane but the reality is it’s the softest market of the year, and it’s solely information-based. Even if you have the right read on a football or basketball game, anything can happen. A corner trips and some fifth-string wideout burns the secondary for a 40-yard touchdown. College basketball’s NCAA tournament has been coined “March Madness” for a reason.

In the NFL Draft, crazy things can happen relative to public expectation but there is no game to be played. It’s just a group of people in a war room making what they consider to be educated decisions based on their evaluations and team needs. Reading the tea leaves, understanding each team and how they make decisions, as well as a few well-placed sources, can make betting on the NFL Draft extremely profitable. I’m coming off my fourth-straight year of beating the NFL draft prop market. We ripped off 12 units in the first round alone last year. If you want just our best bets, find out how to get a subscription ($179) for $10.

Over the next two weeks, I’ll be breaking down a bunch of the different 2022 NFL Draft betting markets available on FanDuel Sportsbook. If you missed it, I already broke down the top 10 pick market; let's do the same for the first five picks of the draft.

2022 Draft NFL Draft Date & Time

Date: Thursday, April 28 (Round 1), Friday, April 29th ( Rounds 2 & 3) & Saturday, April 30th (Rounds 4-7)

Time: 8:00 PM EST (Round 1), 7:00 PM EST (Rounds and 3), &12:00 PM EST (Rounds 4-7)

Channels: NFL Network, ESPN & ABC, also FuboTV Livestream

More 2022 NFL Draft Resources: Mock Draft | Big Board | Dalton Kates' Prop Bets | Draft Podcast Notes | Move the Line Props Betting Tracker | Draft Betting Odds & Tracker

Top-5 Pick Odds

Top-5 Notes & Bets

Travon Walker, DE, Georgia

Odds: -450

Even at -450, I think this is a bit short. Travon Walker has been making the rounds in sharp circles as the likely No. 1 overall pick at this point. Even if he doesn’t go first overall, all of the next four teams in the top five are in the market for a defensive end. The Jets and Giants would sprint to the podium if Walker was still on the board. His current over/under is 3.5, with heavy juice on the under (-198). A -450 Moneyline on him being a top-five pick converts to an 81% probability. I think this is closer to a 90-95% probability, making it a sizable value. If you are comfortable laying heavy juice, this is a great option.

Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State

Odds: -300

Multiple sources have mentioned Ikem Ekwonu is a “locked-in top-5 talent” and Daniel Jeremiah said he would be a “slam-dunk” pick in the Giants’ minds. Similar to Walker, laying -300 is no joke, but given the true probability compared to implied odds, it is likely a value. The Jaguars are still very much in play for a tackle at No. 1, the Texans are likely to go with an offensive lineman at No. 3, and the Giants are interested in offensive line help at No. 5.

Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

Odds: +125

Ahmad Gardner is a guy we took a heavy position on at under pick 8.5 and under pick 7.5. I now think he goes no later than fifth overall. He has strong athletic traits and didn’t allow a single touchdown in college. If you didn’t already get down on 8.5 or 7.5, I think this is a solid derivative option.

Kyle Hamilton, Safety, Notre Dame

Odds: +200

Avoid this prop at all costs. Kyle Hamilton’s draft stock is in freefall and the odds haven’t adjusted. This should be closer to +400. Even then, I don’t think it has much of a chance. After turning in a relatively poor combine performance, Hamilton ran a 4.70 40-yard dash at his Pro Day. Most reports have been saying Hamilton will likely go in the mid-teens at this point. We took a big position on over 5.5 and 6.5 but even with his over/under at 8.5, I still like the over a lot.

Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

Odds: +250

This is essentially a bet on whether Malik Willis goes No. 2 to the Lions, barring a trade-up by another team. If you want to take that, you can bet that exactly at FanDuel at +500. I sprinkled a bit of action on that myself but the issue is most teams don’t think this is a very strong quarterback class. There won’t be too much competition for Willis, Kenny Pickett, or any of the other lower-ranked options.

Jermaine Johnson II, DE, FSU

Odds: +350

There is some sneaky value here with Jermaine Johnson. According to Jets insiders, they are very interested in landing a pass-rusher and a wide receiver in the draft. Applying that to this class, there’s a good chance both Travon Walker and Aidan Hutchinson are gone by the Jets' fourth pick. This leaves them with the option of drafting either Kayvon Thibodeaux, who is reported to have character concerns, or Jermaine Johnson. Johnson is certainly the lesser-talented of the two but he seems much safer, at least on paper. It’s not my favorite play on the board but you can grab him at +450 to go fourth overall to the Jets or sprinkle a bit of +350 on him going in the top-five if you think he is in play for the Giants as well.

Jameson Williams, WR Alabama

Odds: +3000

This is a massive longshot but could be worth a small sprinkle. We played Jameson Williams to be a top-1o pick at +900 odds, and there is an outside chance he climbs into the top five. Peter Schrager and multiple other NFL Draft insiders have mentioned Williams is the No. 1 wideout on the draft board of multiple teams and is going to go way higher than expected.

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