4for4 2022 NFL Offseason Pick'Em Tracker
Each week we'll be posting an NFL futures pick from our favorite pick'em sites. A lot of the analysis will be based on our award-winning projections and the differences between those and the current numbers listed for the pick'em. All plays will be posted first in our subscriber-only Discord in order to make sure everyone gets the best line available. This article will be updated throughout the offseason to keep track of all pick'ems.
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PrizePicks NFL Plays
Jaylen Waddle under 1,050 receiving yards
Antonio Gibson under 1,050 rushing yards
Both of these numbers are set like nothing happened to either of these players’ roles in the offseason. The Dolphins traded for Tyreek Hill while the Commanders added early-down grinder Brian Robinson Jr with a third-round pick in the NFL Draft. While both Waddle and Gibson are good players, they could see even fewer targets in Waddle’s case and carries in Gibson’s case. Even on 258 attempts, Gibson only got to 1,037 rushing yards last season. The Commanders likely want to limit his touches to try and keep him fresh and more efficient.
Jaylen Waddle didn’t surpass 1,050 receiving yards despite catching 104 passes on 140 targets and minimal target competition. Given the additions to both teams, it seems more likely that these players see less work, not more. We have Waddle projected for 888 receiving yards and Gibson projected for 775 rushing yards, both comfortably under their PrizePicks number. I would consider taking the under on both players down to 1,000 yards.
Pick'em available as of May 17, Connor Allen
Christian Watson under 650.5 receiving yards
Jahan Dotson under 650.5 receiving yards
This week we are taking two rookie receivers' unders. On paper, it may look like Christian Watson has an easy path to targets, but he is a raw prospect who has to develop rapport with Aaron Rodgers. No rookie wideout with Aaron Rodgers has even crossed 600 receiving yards. We have him projected for 523 receiving yards, well under 650. Dotson was drafted in the first round but will have to compete with Terry Mclaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Logan Thomas for targets from Carson Wentz. Between his target competition and how bad Wentz has been, it’s easy to feel comfortable about fading Dotson. We have him projected for 534 receiving yards.
Pick'em available as of May 24, Connor Allen
Marquise Brown under 96.5 receptions
Jaylen Waddle under 100.5 receptions
Mark Andrews under 100.5 receptions
All three of these picks are way off of our projections. We have Brown projected for 77 receptions, Waddle for 84, and Andrews for 74. Now, the major caveat is that our projections tend to bake in some missed time based on historical trends. Even with that, there is enough of a gap here to account for large amounts of variance. Beyond that, Marquise Brown will be playing second fiddle to DeAndre Hopkins for the second half of the season. Jaylen Waddle had 105 receptions last season with next to no target competition and now they added Tyreek Hill. The Ravens passed the ball at an astronomically high rate last season due to injuries on both sides of the ball. With regression inevitable, Andrews should finish closer to the 80-90 reception range.
Pick'em available as of June 15th, Connor Allen
Jaylen Waddle under 100.5 receptions
Mark Andrews under 95.5 receptions
Diontae Johnson under 100.5 receptions
With sportsbooks opening up lines for most of the bigger players, there were some unique discrepancies between what they posted and what prizepicks offered. I don't think sportsbooks lines are especially sharp but they generally take a lot more action and shape their lines accordingly. For example, here is what each players lines were at DraftKings:
Waddle: 85.5 receptions
Andrews: 84.5 receptions
Johnson: 85.5 receptions
This play was posted on Twitter on July 7th.
PrizePicks has some season-long props that are way off sportsbooks and our projections.
Jaylen Waddle O/U 100.5
DK: 85.5
4for4: 84
Mark Andrews O/U 95.5
DK: 84.5
4for4: 74
Diontae Johnson O/U: 100.5
DK: 85.5
4for4: 91
Tail: https://t.co/P02kMWQN7D pic.twitter.com/BGeS2oRRp2— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) July 7, 2022
Since then, PrizePicks has adjusted all of their numbers. Waddle is now at 87.5 receptions, Marquise Brown is at 76.5 receptions, and Diontae Johnson is now at 90.5 receptions. There is a massive advantage to getting to these numbers early.
Pick'em available as of July 7th, Connor Allen
