Amari Cooper Traded to Cleveland: Which Team Wins in Fantasy?
Amari Cooper was traded to the Cleveland Browns on March 12th, 2022 for a fifth-round pick in this year’s draft, with the Cowboys and Browns also swapping sixth-round selections in 2022. While it’s exciting to have the first big move this season at WR go down, it’s not exactly the sexiest for fantasy purposes.
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Will Cleveland Rock?
The short answer is probably not. But I assume you all want some details, so here is what impact Cooper’s presence will have on the Browns in 2022. A positive for those who draft the former Cowboy is that he will immediately become the clear WR1 for the Browns, with Donovan Peoples-Jones as the WR2 and David Njoku at TE on the franchise tag, with Jarvis Landry not returning.
Cooper’s fantasy production has declined over the past three seasons in Dallas, going from 12.9 half-PPR points per game in 2019 to 11.9 in 2020, then 11.2 last season for a WR28 finish. His target share of 18.8% in 2021 was a career-low, his 57.7 yards per game was second-worst only to his 2017 season in Oakland, and the 27-year old is clearly facing a downgrade in Cleveland. The main roadblock to Cooper’s fantasy success on his new team is Kevin Stefanski.
It’s no secret that the Browns offense runs through Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, pun definitely intended. Stefanski’s unit was ninth in rushing attempts with 485 on the season in 2021 and averaged 145.6 rushing yards per contest which were the fourth-highest in the NFL. However, through the air, Cleveland checked in at 28th in the league in pass attempts with 520, and only averaged 195.2 passing yards per tilt which was the sixth-lowest among NFL offenses. If you’re hoping your roster will get bailed out by Cooper touchdowns, the Browns only posted 21 passing scores last season, which was also the sixth-fewest in the league, but things could change with DeShaun Watson in town.
In the past two seasons in Cleveland, Stefanski’s WRs have put up meager fantasy numbers, with none cracking double digits in 2021 and barely reaching fantasy relevance last season.
| Year | Player | Half-PPR Pts Per Game | Positional Ranking |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Odell Beckham | 10.8 | WR37 |
| 2020 | Jarvis Landry | 10.1 | WR41 |
| 2020 | Rashard Higgins | 7.9 | WR64 |
| 2020 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | 4.3 | WR111 |
| 2021 | Jarvis Landry | 8.2 | WR49 |
| 2021 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | 6.7 | WR69 |
| 2021 | Odell Beckham | 5.5 | WR85 |
Of course, Cooper’s outlook hinges largely on the play of new QB Watson who is returning to the field after a year away from the game. Watson is a dual-threat QB who is an improvement over Baker Mayfield for both real-life and fantasy purposes. The former Texan has supported fantasy stars in his past, with DeAndre Hopkins ending the 2018 and 2019 seasons as WR4 and WR5 respectively in half-PPR points per game, and Brandin Cooks finishing 2020 as the WR18 in that category.
The addition of Watson provides some hope for Cooper in 2022, along with the fact that he’ll probably see a bump in target share from anything he’s seen in Dallas in years. However, expectations need to be tempered a bit in this offense, and even someone with Cooper’s talent is looking at low-fantasy WR2 potential in the place wideouts have gone to statistically die.
What Amari Cooper Leaving Means for Dallas
CeeDee Lamb was the Cowboys leading receiver in his sophomore season and now has an even clearer path to fantasy greatness in 2022. Cooper’s vacated targets (104) alone are certainly enough to incite hopes for a true Lamb fantasy WR1 breakout campaign.
Dallas is also expected to retain Michael Gallup, who when healthy has been an asset for the Cowboys as an alternating WR2 or WR3 depending on the health of the wideout room over the last few seasons. In 2019 when serving as second fiddle to Cooper, Gallup posted 1,107 receiving yards and six scores, with 12.8 half-PPR points per contest. In his fifth year in the league, the 26-year old could find himself in fantasy WR2 territory, for a fairly cheap price tag, as he’s currently an 11th-rounder in early Underdog best ball drafts.
This trade is also a positive one for the potential of Dalton Schultz this season. The Cowboys released Blake Jarwin on March 11th, after placing the franchise tag on Schultz a few days earlier. Last year Schultz saw the sixth-most targets at TE, ran the fifth-most routes at the position, and ended as TE6 in half-PPR points per contest. With even more volume in 2022, the Dallas TE could crack that top tier of fantasy assets at a very scarce position.
One minor fantasy concern for the Dallas offense is the guy at the helm, Dak Prescott. He and Cooper had an undeniable chemistry that may not be the easiest to replicate. Check out Prescott’s numbers with and without Cooper throughout his career.
| Games Played | Passing Yards | Touchdowns | Interceptions | Passer Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| With Amari Cooper | 44 | 13,084 | 88 | 27 | 102.9 |
| Without Amari Cooper | 41 | 8,999 | 55 | 23 | 93.2 |
Stats courtesy of statmuse.com
Prescott should still be considered a fantasy QB1 heading into the 2022 season, but those numbers are of mild concern.
Bottom Line
The Browns acquired a clear, undeniable WR1 for their offense, and didn’t give up anything significant for his services. The Cowboys should be just fine, as they already have the weaponry to put up fantasy goodness without the 27-year old.
- Cooper will most likely see an uptick in volume which will be a plus for PPR formats, but is now stuck in an offense that is historically very run-heavy. Consider him a low-end fantasy WR2 until we see what DeShaun Watson looks like in Cleveland.
- Watson himself ranked as QB17 in 4for4's early rankings, and is a borderline QB2/3 in Superflex and best ball leagues, with Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku coming in as a WR4/5 and TE2, assuming Jarvis Landry is no longer in Cleveland. If Landry does remain a Brown, expect his usual floor-based WR3/4 status.
- CeeDee Lamb’s current Underdog ADP is 20, but I expect that to rise as the offseason progresses, and he could even land as a first-rounder for those going with a heavy-WR approach at the start of drafts. His 7.9 targets per contest were 16th in 2021, and with Cooper out of town, Lamb could reach Cooper Kupp or Davante Adams-type volume in 2022.
- In a perenially brutal TE landscape, Dalton Schultz has the potential for top-five production, as he should ingest some of Cooper’s targets without any competition for TE routes run.
- There is some concern for Prescott’s numbers without his favorite WR, but not enough to move him down from fantasy QB1 territory.
