Will Marcus Mariota be a Fantasy Value as a Starter?

The quarterback carousel is in full swing this offseason. After a lot of movement early, the Atlanta Falcons got in on the game dealing their long-time starter, Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts. Despite the large cap hit they'll have to carry this season, the move made all the sense in the world. The Falcons are not going to be a competitive football team in 2022 and maybe not even in 2023, so it made little sense to hold onto their 37-year-old quarterback who displayed declining skills last year.

However, even if the final goal is not to win games this year, they still need someone competent behind center. Enter Marcus Mariota, the former Oregon standout. He spent the last two seasons behind Derek Carr in Las Vegas trying to rebuild his value and parlay that into another chance at a starting gig. With the expectation Mariota is under center Week 1 for the Falcons, what can fantasy managers expect from the former No. 2 overall pick?

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What Has Marcus Mariota Brought to the Table in the Past?

Fantasy managers will remember Mariota from the 2015 NFL Draft when he and Jameis Winston battled for the No. 1 spot. Winston ended up winning that battle, but neither passer has been able to exhibit any kind of sustained success in the NFL thus far. In fact, both signal callers have since moved onto new teams and should be viewed as nothing more than a bridge quarterback for each team's next franchise quarterback. That doesn't necessarily mean they can't help fantasy squads in the meantime. Unfortunately, fantasy managers shouldn't get their hopes up. The former Duck has struggled since entering the NFL and never lived up to the hype following his prolific college career.

In his first two seasons, Mariota looked the part. While his 61.6% completion percentage left a lot to be desired, there were also plenty of reasons to believe in the talent he showcased. He averaged a healthy 7.6 yards per attempt and sported a 5.48% touchdown rate. In his first two seasons, his per-game averages amounted to a 17-game stat line that would have looked like this: 3,931 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Most general and fantasy managers would be ecstatic regarding the early success he had in the NFL. Unfortunately, the momentum he had built in his first two seasons would not be improved upon. His third and fourth seasons were the equivalent of the proverbial "falling off a cliff" talk we often associate with declining athletes.

After throwing 45 touchdowns, averaging 1.67 per game those first two seasons, Mariota's stats utterly collapsed. In years three and four, despite playing in two more contests, the former Oregon standout threw a whopping 21 (!) fewer touchdowns. This wasn't the only area he struggled in either. He threw 19 interceptions during his first two seasons, a number he would almost eclipse in his third season alone when he had 15. Not knowing what to do with the former No. 2 overall pick, the Titans traded for Ryan Tannehill prior to the 2019 season. They needed a backup and the Miami Dolphins had seen enough of Tannehill to believe he wasn't it. The cost was cheap and the Dolphins were desperate.

Mariota was on a short leash entering his fifth season and he would only make his way through six contests before being benched for Tannehill in the seventh game of the season. His completion percentage, which had always been poor, fell to a career-low, bottoming out at 59.4%. Through just over six games, the fifth-year pro had just 1,203 passing yards to his name. With six and a half games of playing time, this amounted to a 17-game pace of a measly 3,146 yards. As if the stats weren't bad enough, Tannehill entered the lineup and excelled. Mariota had the Titans at just 2–4 through six weeks and Tannehill would finish with a blistering 7–3 record. When we look at their per-game averages, the picture becomes even more dire.

The Titans had found their new quarterback and just like that, Mariota's time in Tennessee was over. A very encouraging two-year start to his career had quickly spiraled out of control, leaving almost everyone associated with the franchise wondering what in the world had gone so wrong?

His fantasy production over those five seasons left fantasy managers yearning for more – a lot more. Over 60 career games, he averaged just 15.71 PPG. For a point of reference, Daniel Jones averaged 15.77 PPG last season for the Giants. While he did produce one QB1 season in 2016, Mariota has mostly left those depending on him high and dry. The table below shows just how minimal his fantasy impact was.

If Mariota thought things were difficult his first go-around as a starter, this second chance in Atlanta is going to do him no favors. The current depth chart paints a very ugly picture and it's clearly one of the worst offenses on paper. There are very few weapons who will provide Mariota any help and it's possible their first-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft is actually used on his replacement. So with that being said, what can fantasy managers expect from the former Raider this season?

What Will Marcus Mariota's Fantasy Value Be In Atlanta?

Our minds are such powerful tools. We are so quick to remember Mariota's insanely productive collegiate years at Oregon, but tend to blackout his years in Tennessee. In the three years as a starter, he racked up 2,237 yards rushing. He averaged over 100 attempts and 700 rushing yards every year he was behind center for the Ducks. Fast forward to 2022 and running quarterbacks are all the rage. For crying out loud, Jalen Hurts just finished as the QB6 in PPG with barely over 3,000 passing yards and just 16 passing touchdowns.

Quarterbacks who can run and run well can be very fantasy viable even with downright poor passing numbers. The guys that can run and pass are cheat codes. When Mariota signed with Atlanta, the fantasy community got excited. After all, this was a former Heisman-winning quarterback and someone who appears to have the ability to score points with his legs. Our minds, however, have duped us. We're forgetting those almost five seasons where Mariota literally dispelled for us, all the reasons we want to love him in Atlanta.

Let's first start with the rushing metrics because this is really the only way Mariota can provide fantasy value this season. We all remember the magic he showcased at Oregon, but the problem is none of it transferred to the pros. Below you'll find a table detailing Mariota's rushing stats and what his per-game averages would have amounted to over a full season. We'll also look at how those numbers would've stacked up against quarterbacks in 2021.

The other thing worth mentioning here as it relates to Mariota's rushing upside is his age. His best rushing season, which wouldn't have even been in the top-10 in 2021 was when he was 25 years old. He'll be 29 years old this season and he hasn't started in an NFL game since 2019, which will be almost three years ago by the time Week 1 rolls around. While his collegiate career showed an exponential amount of promise of a true dual-threat quarterback, fantasy managers have almost five years' worth of data from the actual NFL that has shown us, very explicitly, Mariota simply isn't the guy fantasy managers want him to be.

QBs who have rushed for 500+ yards in a season since 2011:



Share of team rush attempts: 23%

Share of team designed rush attempts: 15%

Scrambles per dropback: 9%



Marcus Mariota 2015 - 2019: 11%, 6%, 5%

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) March 21, 2022

While his rushing stats leave something to be desired, his passing efficiency will leave you wanting even more. In four of his five seasons, Mariota didn't complete 63% of his passes and he left Tennessee with just a 62.9% completion rate. This would have ranked 26th last season, just ahead of Jacoby Brissett, Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold. In four full seasons, he has just one season with more than 20 passing touchdowns and he's never eclipsed 3,500 passing yards. This becomes an even bigger issue looking at the receivers Mariota will be targeting this season.

Outside of Kyle Pitts, the depth is as empty as they come. Currently slated to start are Olamide Zaccheaus and a list of unknowns. It should be widely assumed the receivers who end up starting the 2022 season are not yet on the roster, but the free agency list is growing thin. The organization also has a plethora of needs outside of receiver so drafting a rookie early in the draft is no guarantee either. The only thing you can feel certain of at this point is the Falcons will start the season with one of, if not the worst group of pass-catchers in the league.

Last season, with Matt Ryan at the helm, who has proven to be a far superior passer than Mariota in every way, threw for just 3,968 yards and 20 touchdowns. That also included a handful of games with Calvin Ridley and 14 games from Russell Gage, who will not be suiting up for the Falcons this season. The 3,968 yards Ryan managed to throw for would be a career-high for Mariota by 542 yards. Ryan finished last season as QB20 with a lowly 13.82 PPG average. There's simply no reason fantasy managers should be expecting Mariota to be even remotely as effective as a passer in 2022 with a worse group of pass-catchers.

When looking at his rushing yards per game, even the addition of 2–3 points per game is going to keep Mariota a back-end QB2 and that's with Ryan's passing efficiency, which he'll struggle mightily to duplicate. There are so many talented quarterbacks in fantasy right now and fantasy managers should be expecting much better seasons from the 2021 class of quarterbacks. This will make it very difficult for you to feel comfortable with Mariota as your QB2 in Superflex leagues. He's best treated as a QB3 with some potential to be a bottom-tier QB2.

What Happens to Kyle Pitts?

Atlanta is going to ask a lot from their phenom tight end this season. He'll no doubt enter the season as the clear-cut No. 1 target for Mariota and he'll be the focal part of their offense. The problem with that is defenses will know it too. There is simply no one on the roster at this time to take any real attention away from him. If the Falcons' offense is going to be successful, Pitts is going to have channel his inner Superman. It's a gigantic ask for a second-year player, but Pitts may just be up to the task – at least for fantasy purposes.

While Pitts' targets are likely to be less efficient, fantasy managers should be expecting him to see a lot more of them. He had a very respectable 19.2% target share as a rookie and it shouldn't be a surprise if that climbs several percentage points in 2022. Luckily, for fantasy managers, Mariota's time in Tennessee featured a comparable, albeit not quite as bad, group of pass-catchers.

In 2015, his second-best pass-catcher was Dorial Green-Beckham who finished with just 32 receptions and 549 yards. The Falcons' current depth chart may provide fantasy managers with a very similar type of outcome this year. However, in that 2015 season, Delanie Walker was targeted a staggering 133 times and converted those targets into 94 receptions, 1,088 yards, and 6 touchdowns. He finished as the TE4. In fact, Walker finished no lower than TE6 in three seasons with Mariota under center in Tennessee.

Pitts could very easily end up as the highest-targeted tight end in 2022. As long as he stays healthy, there's no way he's not in the top-three for most targeted tight ends and that volume will keep him locked into being a top-six tight end in 2022. He has a higher ceiling in PPR leagues as he is unlikely to catch as many touchdowns as Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and George Kittle, but in an offense devoid of weapons, Pitts will be someone Mariota looks to early and often.

While the quarterback move lowers his ceiling a bit, he will have one of the safer floors because of his weekly volume. While there's really no reason to rank Pitts ahead of the already mentioned big-three, he should continue to be the fourth or fifth tight end off the board between Darren Waller. T.J. Hockenson and Dallas Goedert have some quarterback concerns of their own and there's no way either one can compete with Pitts' target share.

The Bottom Line

• Mariota hasn't shown any rushing upside in his previous stint in Tennessee, which keeps his floor dangerously low.
• The former Duck will struggle in the passing game with very limited weapons.
• He's best valued as a QB3 with possible backend QB2 potential in Superflex leagues.
• Kyle Pitts should be locked into that TE4/5 spot, a battle between himself and Darren Waller.
• While Pitts will be heavily targeted, his TD upside is minimal. His value is higher in PPR leagues, but he should be expected to finish as a mid-to-upper TE1.