Daigle's Top NFL DFS Picks: Week 1

Sep 09, 2022

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I begin my research for DFS tournaments every week by sifting through what our opponents are doing and engineering lineups backward from there.

These top plays, though viable for cash games (which will be noted throughout), are suggested specifically for tournaments and are weighted for ceiling projection, matchup, ownership, and value. I will include any thoughts on game theory within my reasoning for each player.

They are listed in order of descending price, not by my personal rankings.

This article is updated until kickoff. For other up-to-the-minute and Sunday morning updates, be sure to join the 4for4 DFS subscription-only Discord channel.

More Week 1 DFS Strategy: Cash Game Breakdown | GPP Breakdown | WR/CB Matchups

Quarterbacks

Overnight Thoughts: The field is honing in on Jalen Hurts (see below) and Lamar Jackson—information that bodes well for tournament players since it additionally tells us which ancillary pieces are being stacked. I admittedly fret paying down at quarterback since only five players at that position (Joe Burrow, Josh Johnson, Cooper Rush, Trevor Siemian, Tyler Huntley) averaged over 19 DraftKings points when priced below $6,000 last year, but the season opener does offer us an opportunity to counter the assumptions (without any prior data to lean on) of our opponents.

Justin Herbert, Chargers ($7,600 DK, $8,400 FD)

It takes a little bit of faith to assume the team’s coaching staff will tweak their approach after Herbert finished No. 23 among all QBs in air yards per attempt and 25th with a 7.9-yard depth of target, but any additional aggressiveness could leave the Chargers passing even more than last year’s fourth-highest rate. Los Angeles also scored 28 and 32 points against the Raiders in 2021, recording 75 and 93 plays in those contests — for reference, the Ravens led the league with 69.7 plays per game last season.