Fantasy Football Quarterback Streaming Week 1: Ryan Tannehill a Titan vs. the Giants?

Sep 06, 2022

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It’s always a weird feeling coming into Week 1. It’s like the moment when you’re sitting at the top of the first hill of a rollercoaster. Like it or not, you know what’s coming. Highs, lows, and twists you didn’t see coming fill your path. The fantasy season is no different, and it’s finally time to watch some meaningful football. However, we still have roster decisions to make before kickoff.

More Week 1 Streaming: TE | K | DST

Process

Last season, my weekly recommendations resulted in 30 top-12 plays, with 11 quarterbacks finishing in the Top 6. The Top Plays averaged 18.6 PPG, equating to a QB13 average. It’s a step up from 2020’s results and speaks to the process I’ve continued to evolve over the last few years. Let’s dig into the metrics I’ll use each week before we start.

I set the pool of quarterbacks to consider with a 40% maximum roster rate. Afterward, I use a combination of multiple metrics to sift through the matchups to find the optimal players. Here are just a few:

4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) – A rolling average of defensive points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. It’s only a starting point. Merging aFPA with data trends pulled from Sports Info Solutions will solidify any basis for a streaming recommendation. I’ll include aFPA after Week 3.
Neutral Passing Rate – Passing rates while teams are within one score of each other gives us some indication of how they prefer to play. We want mobility for a ceiling but need a solid passing floor to lay a foundation.
Vegas Betting Lines – It’s not perfect, but game totals give us an idea of which environments to target. Whether it be due to pace of play or offensive firepower, a top-projected team favored to win will be highly considered each week.
Pace of Play – I mentioned it as a part of the betting lines, but I wanted to highlight this component specifically. Eight teams in the Top 12 for neutral pace also finished in the Top 12 for yards per drive. We should consider any squad favoring an up-tempo scheme each week.
Opposing Offensive Efficiency – When analyzing matchups, we focus on the opposing defense. But offensive tendencies are more stable weekly and have a larger impact on game flow. As a result, looking at quarterbacks and their passing rates while playing from behind can point us in the right direction.

Again, these are just a few data points I’ll weave into each pick. Weather and critical defensive injuries may change my stance, but I’ll continue to update throughout the week as we know more. Let’s see who’s viable to start the 2021 season.