SharpClarke's Week 10 Betting Recap: Evaluating the Emergence of Justin Fields

Week 10 was a wild week of fun football games. I had my second-best week of the season, and hopefully, it signals another strong stretch run for me after a slow start. I also think there was a lot to learn about in this week's games. To grind out edges in the NFL, you can never stop paying attention. To that end, I've got you covered after watching every snap of every game once again and reflecting on how things are progressing. Specifically, I want to talk about Justin Fields after another strong performance against Detroit.

Prep your Week 11 Betting Card!

DET 31, CHI 30

Effectiveness Ratings

DET: 5.58
CHI: 6.21

Effective Result: CHI by 7.56

Despite losing as favorites, the Bears were the more effective team in this game. The Lions were unable to exert pressure on Fields with any consistency, and by playing man defense on the back end they left themselves vulnerable to scrambles. Fields had time to look downfield and capitalize when something came open, and space to run around when it didn't. This marks his fourth straight impressive performance, at least relative to what most people expected. The hype train is accelerating. And for context, I wrote an in-depth Twitter thread this offseason based on his rookie film, predicting that he would do well despite having a weak supporting cast, provided the scheme was built to his strengths by getting him outside the pocket. We are seeing that happen and the results have been exciting.

But it's important not to get carried away. Despite his highlight-reel plays and jaw-dropping moves, there are reasons to be skeptical about this sudden resurgence. The Lions and Dolphins are not strong defenses. The Bears' offense is basically a college offense and succeeds well against defenses that leave space and do not get pressure on the quarterback. It also does particularly well against man-heavy defenses, because Fields escaping from the pocket creates matchup nightmares when players need to stay locked onto defenders for three, four, five, or six seconds. Each of the Bears' last four opponents - the Lions, Dolphins, Cowboys, and Patriots play man defense at a top-10 rate. Any time an NFL offense has success implementing a new offense, it can take weeks for defenses to catch up to the film. I would anticipate zone-heavy teams to focus on containing Fields and even man-heavy teams adjusting their approach in future weeks. They won't be able to stop Fields completely, but they should be able to achieve more success than these teams did.

His playmaking ability has also been at its maximum on third down. Over these last four weeks, they have converted 55% of their third downs. Only one team in recent history has finished a season converting more than 50% of their third downs, and that was last year's Kansas City Chiefs (52.2%). Only two teams are above 50% so far this season and that's the Bills (52.4%) and Chiefs (51.9%). This level of success on high-leverage downs is simply unsustainable unless Fields and this offense are legitimately better than Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (at their best). Spoiler alert: They are not.

This week should be a bit of a mixed bag. On one hand, the Falcons have the worst-rated defense in the entire NFL by my effectiveness ratings. They cannot pressure the quarterback and they repeatedly fail in coverage. This should be an easy matchup for the Bears' offense. But on the other hand, they are one of the most zone-heavy defenses in the NFL. That will present a different look for Fields and might prevent some of the massive plays he has created in recent weeks. But after the Falcons, it gets really difficult. The Bears play the Jets, Packers, Eagles, and Bills in the following four games. That will be a true test of whether or not this offense can sustain against the best defenses in the NFL who have had time to process the film and prepare to stop Fields. Ultimately, I'm skeptical.

We have also seen really bad moments from Fields where he reminds us that he struggles to process NFL coverages. The biggest one came this past week while the Bears were nursing a seven-point lead over the Lions early in the fourth quarter. The Bears tried to set up a screen pass that was quickly sniffed out by the defensive end. But instead of throwing the ball away or escaping the pocket, Fields tried to loft it over the defender and overthrew his target, right into the waiting hands of Jeff Okudah, who took it to the house and tied the game. We also saw him throw a bad interception at the end of the first half against Dallas that got overturned on a roughing penalty. It has not all been smooth sailing. I expect an up-and-down finish to the year, and betting on Bears games requires an open mind, not overreacting to the most recent week of evidence.

Week 10 Betting Recap

After a slightly positive Week 9 performance, it was very encouraging to smash Week 10 to the tune of 5-2 for +5.35 Units. I didn't like many spread bets on the slate, so turned to totals for several of my plays. These had mixed results, but my read on the games where I bet a straight side was very strong. I bet CAR +3 (won by 10), PIT Moneyline as an underdog (won by 10), IND -2.5 alternate spread (won by 5), and a teaser where both legs hit (DEN +8.5 and SF -1). Once again, my process is stronger when I am able to find sides I like as opposed to totals and derivatives.

My biggest takeaway from the bets I made is that when I identify an angle or edge I like, I should focus my exposure on that edge. In my write-up for why I liked the Browns-Dolphins Under, I spent most of my handicap pointing out why I expected the Browns' offense to struggle. I had legitimate reasons based on my film watching and wanted to lean into that angle. I should have played the Dolphins -3.5 or the Browns' team total under. But when it came to handicapping the other side, I projected a lot of things that were mere conjecture. I thought that maybe familiarity and rest would help a defense catch up to what Miami had been doing on offense. But the truth is they have been playing lights out ever since Tua Tagovailoa returned. I talked myself into betting the total, which was not an optimal play. My blind spot on the Dolphins' offense cost me the bet. A good lesson.

Onto Week 11, hoping for a third consecutive winning week!

For all my bets and analysis, you can join the 4for4 Discord via a 4for4 betting subscription (10% off with code SharpClarke) and follow @SharpClarkeNFL on Twitter for alerts. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.