Week 12 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Candidates: Quarterbacks
Wondering whom to start and sit at quarterback this week? Below are two top-notch start and two sit options at the quarterback position for Week 12 of the 2022 NFL season.
Week 11 Review – half-PPR scoring
Starts
- QB Justin Fields (Chicago Bears) @ Atlanta Falcons – 23.62 fantasy points (QB7)
- QB Daniel Jones (New York Giants) vs. Detroit Lions – 26.64 fantasy points (QB3)
Sits
- QB Jacoby Brissett (Cleveland Browns) @ Buffalo Bills – 25.86 fantasy points (QB4)
- QB Matt Ryan (Indianapolis Colts) vs. Philadelphia Eagles – 8.62 fantasy points (QB22)
Quarterback – Starts
Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Seattle Seahawks and Las Vegas Raiders game is helpfully totaled with a 47.5-point over/under at 4for4 betting-partner website, BetMGM. Seattle’s 25.5-point implied team total is extremely fantasy-friendly.
Las Vegas is allowing 23.1 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, the second most on the year per 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed. Seattle quarterback Geno Smith has produced over 19.0 fantasy points in each of his last three games, against far tougher opponents.
Las Vegas’ 248.8 passing yards allowed per game is a top-10 quarterback-friendly rate and their bottom-five pass rush is generating just a 16.7% quarterback pressure rate, per 4for4’s NFL Team Stats Explorer. Las Vegas’ 2.9 touchdowns per game allowed are tied for the fifth-most in the NFL.
Among NFL quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks, Smith’s 8.28 adjusted yards per pass attempt are top five and his 5.3% passing touchdown rate is top 10.
Seattle’s 3.3% pass rate over expectation is tied for the sixth-most in the NFL.
Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) vs. Houston Texans
While the Houston Texans are technically allowing just 11.4 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, the third-fewest in the NFL, that rate has more to do with game script than defensive proficiency.
Miami’s 3.3%, top-eight, pass rate over expectation should keep them throwing.
The Dolphins' monstrous 29.25-point implied team total indicates four-touchdown potential for Miami’s offense.
Houston is allowing a 9.8% explosive pass play rate, the fourth highest in the NFL, making them one of the five most likely teams to be gouged for chunk gains by Miami’s No. 1-ranked explosive pass play offense, boasting an electric 12.2% rate.
*Check out the full QB Rankings here.
Quarterback – Sits
Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos) @ Carolina Panthers
Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson is a sit this week against the Carolina Panthers. BetMGM currently has the game with an abysmal 36.0-point over/under, the lowest on the Week 12 slate by a 3.0-point margin.
As mentioned in the Fantasy Football Defense Streaming Week 12: Texans Out of Their Element in Miami article, Denver’s offensive line is at a disadvantage versus Carolina edge rusher Brian Burns.
Carolina’s 16.1 fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, the 15th fewest in the NFL, is hardly a permissive average.
Davis Mills (Houston Texans) @ Miami Dolphins
Update: No. 2 quarterback Kyle Allen has been named the starter.
While the Miami Dolphins are one of the top-three most quarterback-friendly fantasy defenses (21.9 fantasy points allowed per game), Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills is a no-go this week.
As mentioned in the Fantasy Football Defense Streaming Week 12: Texans Out of Their Element in Miami article, Miami’s 31.0% quarterback pressure rate is No. 1 in the NFL since the team acquired edge rusher, Bradley Chubb, via trade in Week 9.
Davis Mills’ top-10 7.7% sack rate will be a problem, as will his 25th-ranked 6.54 adjusted-pass yards per attempt.
