Week 13 NFL Betting Picks: Team and Game Totals

Nov 30, 2022

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The Falcons made us sweat, but a late Commanders stop and another strong performance from Geno Smith and the Seattle offense propelled me to a 2-0 mark in this spot last week. I have one early play now and will likely have one or two more, depending on injury news as the week progresses.

Handicapping NFL sides and totals is not a perfect science, though it gets easier to navigate as the season progresses. The more we can contextualize in-season data and adjust it for the situation and opponent, the better. Whenever possible, lean into situation-adjusted stats over raw counting stats. Utilize metrics like success rate and explosive play rates over total yards and points against. Our Team and Player Stat Explorer tools can help.

I'm continuing to focus on what I think is the most significant inefficiency in the market (outside of tackle props): Individual team totals. Working around key numbers is critical, and focusing on one team or matchup helps eliminate a bit of variance in each bet.

The NFL news cycle and player-related updates are relentless this time of year. All of our plays are released through our subscriber Discord. Go to #Role-Assign and turn on "Staff NFL Plays" to receive push notifications whenever a play is released by the 4for4 team. Beyond picks, our betting subscription includes tools that can't be found anywhere else. You can find out more details about everything a betting subscription comes with here.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.