Week 16 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Candidates: Running Backs
Wondering whom to start and sit at running back this week? Below are three top-notch starts and one sit option at the running back position for Week 16 of the 2022 NFL season.
Week 15 Review – half-PPR scoring
Starts
- RB Isiah Pacheco (Kansas City Chiefs) @ Houston Texans – 8.2 fantasy points (RB36)
- RB J.K. Dobbins (Baltimore Ravens) @ Cleveland Browns – 13.3 fantasy points (RB18)
- RB Pierre Strong Jr. (New England Patriots) @ Las Vegas Raiders – 5.2 fantasy points (RB45)
Sits
- RB Rex Burkhead (Houston Texans) vs. Kansas City Chiefs – 2.7 fantasy points (RB54)
Running Back – Starts
Jerick McKinnon (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Kansas City Chiefs are 10.0-point home favorites versus the Seattle Seahawks.
Kansas City running back Jerick McKinnon has sliced up defenses via the passing game all year. His 1.69 yards per route run rank rate is tied for 15th among NFL running backs with at least 25 targets and his 10.5 yards after catch per reception rank No. 2, per 4for4's NFL Player Stats Explorer.
Over the last three weeks, McKinnon has surprisingly managed to force an early-down timeshare with breakout rookie Isiah Pacheco as McKinnon’s 52.1% first-down snap rate leads Pacheco by 6.4%. McKinnon shockingly leads Pacheco in red zone snap share as well, 80.0%-to-16.7%.
Seattle is allowing 25.1 half-PPR points per game to opposing running back, the third most in the NFL per 4for4’s Hot Spot: Team-Level SOS.
Raheem Mostert (Miami Dolphins) vs. Green Bay Packers
The Miami Dolphins are 4.0-point home favorites vs. the Green Bay Packers.
Miami’s backfield roles have muddled since their Week 11 bye but among 61 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this year, Raheem Mostert remains top-18 in yards per carry (4.9), broken tackle rate (7.2%), and yards after contact per carry (2.1).
Green Bay’s defensive front is ceding 148.4 rushing yards per game and a 6.4% explosive rushing plays allowed rate, both rates ranking among the five-softest fronts in the NFL, 4fo4's NFL Team Stats Explorer. Opposing running backs are averaging 21.4 half-PPR points per game against them, the seventh most in the league.
*Check out our full RB Rankings here.
Running Back - Sits
D'Onta Foreman (Carolina Panthers) vs. Detroit Lions
The Carolina Panthers are 2.5-point home underdogs versus the Detroit Lions.
In Weeks 7-12, running back D’Onta Foreman handed 60.2% of the team’s backfield carries, while Chuba Hubbard took 25.7%. Since Carolina’s Week 13 bye, Foreman’s lead has shrunk to 50.8% while Hubbard’s rate is up to 29.5%. Foreman has also worryingly produced just 2.7 yards per carry, ranking 48-of-49 running backs with at least 10 carries during that span.
Since their Week 6 bye, Detroit’s fearsome front seven are limiting opponents to just 115.0 rushing yards per game, alongside a 3.9% explosive rushing plays allowed rate. Both rates are top-10 in the NFL and their 9.9 half-PPR points allowed to opposing running back is the league’s stingiest mark.
Antonio Gibson (Washington Commanders) @ San Francisco 49ers
Over Washington’s last two games, former starting running back Antonio Gibson has averaged seven rushing attempts and four targets per game, inefficiently averaging 4.3 yards per carry and 13.0 receiving yards per game.
San Francisco’s No. 1 ranked run defense is allowing just 75.1 rushing yards per game and a near-impossible 2.3% explosive rushing plays allowed rate. Thanks to the defense’s stellar play, opposing running backs are averaging just 10.8 half-PPR points per game against them, the second-fewest in the NFL.
