Week 16 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Candidates: Wide Receivers
Wondering whom to start and sit at wide receiver this week? Below are two top-notch start and two sit options at the wide receiver position for Week 16 of the 2022 NFL season.
Week 15 Review – half-PPR scoring
Starts
- WR Garrett Wilson (New York Jets) vs. Detroit Lions – 11.8 fantasy points (T-WR25)
- WR Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints) vs. Atlanta Falcons – 6.8 fantasy points (WR49)
- WR Michael Pittman Jr. (Indianapolis Colts) @ Minnesota Vikings – 14.0 fantasy points (WR17)
Sits
- WR Chase Claypool (Chicago Bears) vs. Philadelphia Eagles – N/A fantasy points (WR N/A)
Wide Receiver – Starts
DeVonta Smith (Philadelphia Eagles) @ Dallas Cowboys
The Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys combined for 43 points in Week 6 and their Week 16 over/under is set at 46.0.
Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts is unlikely to play due to an AC-joint sprain in his throwing shoulder. Per Adam Hutchison’s Injury Index, quarterbacks average 2.8 games missed with nonspecific shoulder sprains and carry a frightening 20.0% re-injury risk. Hutchison confirmed the 2.8-game-absence average is reasonable for Hurts in Hutchison’s Training Room series.
In four games as Philadelphia’s starter in 2021, No. 2 quarterback Gardner Minshew averaged 7.77 adjusted yards per pass attempt and a 73.8% on-target rate, ranking 13th and 17th among NFL quarterbacks with at least 70 dropbacks, respectively, per 4for4's NFL Player Stats Explorer. Philadelphia’s passing offense ranked 14th in explosive passing play rate (8.1%) in Minshew’s four starts, per 4for4's NFL Team Stats Explorer.
DeVonta Smith should enjoy the soft coverage of backup cornerback Kelvin Joseph, with starter Anthony Brown on Injured Reserve. Smith’s 24.0% targets per route run rate and 2.1 yards per route run rate most closely resemble that of Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen (24.0% and 2.09, respectively). Boasting dynamic play-making ability, Smith should thrive against fantasy’s seventh-most wide receiver-friendly defense, currently allowing 24.6 half-PPR points per game to the position, per 4for4's Hot Spot: Team-Level SOS.
Richie James Jr. (New York Giants) @ Minnesota Vikings
The New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings game offers fantasy managers an exciting 48.0-point over/under, the third highest in Week 16.
New York slot receiver Richie James Jr. will face underwhelming slot cornerback Chandon Sullivan this weekend, the worst coverage defender in fantasy’s most wide receiver-friendly defense. Minnesota is allowing 29.2 half-PPR points per game to opposing wide receivers.
Minnesota’s 276.4 passing yards and 10.2% explosive pass plays allowed per game are both the second-highest in the league.
Gabriel Davis (Buffalo Bills) @ Chicago Bears
The Buffalo Bills head to the Windy City for a game against the Chicago Bears, carrying with them a robust 25.25-point implied team total.
Among NFL wide receivers with at least 50 targets, Buffalo wide receiver Gabriel Davis commands the position’s longest average depth of target, 15.1 yards. His downfield usage will come in handy against a Chicago secondary surrendering an 8.6% explosive pass plays allowed rate, the ninth-most opponent-friendly rate in the league. His cause is aided by Buffalo's top-eight passing rate (66.1%).
Chicago is allowing 23.6 half-PPR points per game to opposing wide receivers, the 10th most in the NFL.
* Check out our full WR Rankings here.
Wide Receiver – Sits
Zay Jones (Jacksonville Jaguars) @ New York Jets
The Jacksonville Jaguars have just an 18.25-point implied team total against the New York Jets.
Jacksonville No. 2 wide receiver Zay Jones has stolen headlines in recent weeks but the volatile wide receiver carries only moderate efficiency (1.73 yards per route run) into his Thursday Night Football matchup against fantasy’s stingiest wide-receiver defense. Jones’ 0.86 air yards conversion ratio ranks 32nd among qualifying wide receivers and New York is allowing a near-impossible 13.7 half-PPR points per game to the position.
New York’s 6.2% explosive pass plays allowed rate is the second best in the NFL and their 193.4 passing yards allowed per game ranks No. 4.
