Week 17 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report
We're at the time of the year when weather, travel, and rest advantages can really start to play a factor, and we're quickly approaching 'Motivation Season' as teams play out the stretch.
When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. It's an effort to get ahead of the market movement to land the best number. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 16 evaluation of the team and market, I will have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 17.
Friends don't let friends bet NFL sides on game day. I understand the appeal of getting action down on a game about to kick off, but please, for the love of all things sacred, don't do it. I understand that most casual bettors out there don't have time to comb through every news blurb and injury report the moment it comes out. It's difficult for most bettors to feel informed early in the week, or even more, right when next week's line is posted on Sunday evening for the following week's games.
In my opinion, the only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, indicating that the book feels they've priced the game correctly. So unless you're waiting later in the week because you're betting five-to-six figures on a side, you're +EV increases if you can get down on a number before it's sharpened by the whales.
This brief lookahead window offers a sneak peek at how teams are valued by bookmakers before the start of the week. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening—after the previous week's games are complete. These lines are a true indicator of how bookmakers value each team, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down you'd like, depending on your unit sizing. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, and that is easier to do once you know what the opening number is.
For reference, I'll use the initial odds released by Westgate back in May to show you how the game opened. Then, I'll note the consensus for each current Week 17 lookahead line, with the spread listed based on the home team:
| GAME | CURRENT LINE (12/22) | PRESEASON LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Titans | +6 | -1.5 |
| Cardinals @ Falcons | -3 | +3.5 |
| Bears @ Lions | -6.5 | -1.5 |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | -10 | -4.5 |
| Dolphins @ Patriots | +2.5 | -4.5 |
| Colts @ Giants | -3 | +3 |
| Saints @ Eagles | -5.5 | -3 |
| Panthers @ Buccaneers | -6.5 | -9 |
| Browns @ Commanders | -1.5 | N/A |
| Steelers @ Ravens | -6.5 | -5.5 |
| Jaguars @ Texans | +5.5 | PK |
| 49ers @ Raiders | +4 | -1.5 |
| Jets @ Seahawks | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| Vikings @ Packers | -2.5 | -5.5 |
| Rams @ Chargers | -8 | -1.5 |
| Bills @ Bengals | +2.5 | PK |
Week 17 Lookahead Lines Takeaways
- I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. These things are mostly already baked into the number, but there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market.
Cowboys @ Titans (+6)
This game doesn't matter, but I can't imagine either of these clubs playing it any other way than to win. Dallas has been locked into the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoff picture for weeks, while Tennessee's season likely hinges on its Week 18 trip to Jacksonville.
Bears @ Lions (-6.5)
A Detroit win in Carolina in Week 15 bumps the Lions' playoff odds from 40% to 61%, according to 538's Playoff Odds Projector, but they'll need to continue to win out to secure one of the more unlikely playoff berths in years. The Bears will be walking a fine line down the stretch. It's evident they're looking to get Justin Fields the all-time quarterback rushing yards record while also trying not to break him.
Saints @ Eagles (-5.5)
This line is caught in the middle of guessing Jalen Hurts' status. I don't know what will happen with Hurts, but Gardner Minshew is good enough to compete with this supporting cast, and we'll see that in Week 16 against Dallas. Of course, a case can be made that this game means nothing to the Eagles, but they acquired New Orleans' first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft in the Chris Olave trade, so Philadelphia has a specific motivation to handle this one appropriately.
Panthers @ Buccaneers (-6.5)
No one wants to win the NFC South. Currently, all four teams are still alive, but the most likely scenario is the winner of this matchup finishes the season on top of the division. The Panthers embarrassed the Buccaneers earlier this season, holding the Buccaneers to just three points, which at the time, was one of the most surprising results of the year.
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Vikings @ Packers (-2.5)
There's a dimly-lit path that leads to a Packers playoff appearance, but they need to win out and get a little help along the way. The truth of the matter is they're playing better football than the Vikings right now, and they're about as healthy as they've been at any point this season. I think they have their way against Minnesota's scuffling defense, and I like laying the 2.5 here.
Bills @ Bengals (+2.5)
This game has a significant impact on the AFC playoff picture. This game's results impact the AFC's top seed and the AFC North title, and both quarterbacks getting a primetime spot with a dominant win or performance makes the MVP race more interesting.
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