Hoppen to Conclusions: Week 17 Insights and Analysis

Hello and welcome to the Week 17 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit DFS lineup construction, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to be targeting players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them. As you can see, I have also added views on the last four weeks of games.

Note: neutral game-script is defined as plays outside of the two-minute warning with a win probability between 20% and 80% for the offensive team.

• Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team's average plays per game (in regulation only, overtime excluded) to its neutral-script pace, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (fewer seconds per play) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
• Team Pass Rates: Compares a team's pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn't a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
• Running Back Usage: Compares running back snap percent to his high-value touches (carries inside the 10 and receptions), with the size of the player's point as his total opportunities per game.
• Wide Receiver/Tight End Usage: Compares player-weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his targets per route run (TPRR), with the size of the player's point as his receiver air conversion ratio (RACR). WOPR weights both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player's opportunity, while RACR divides a player's receiving yards by his air yards to evaluate his efficiency in the opportunity he is given. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end positions.

Team Pace and Plays

• The 49ers and Raiders have been two of the slowest teams all year, and now they will face off against each other in Week 17. Since Week 13, San Francisco and Las Vegas both rank in the bottom eight in pace over expected. They also use no-huddle at the second (49ers) and fifth (Raiders) lowest rates this season. While pace isn't everything, the 49ers also have the best defense by EPA per play (-0.114), yards per game (290), and points per game (15.3%) allowed. While Brock Purdy has been able to move the ball in his three starts (the 49ers have the third-best EPA per play over that span), I don't see how even a fully-healthy Raiders offense moves the ball that much against San Francisco, while also being a slow team.
  • Action: bet under 46 (-110) on DraftKings
• There are a lot of games on Sunday with a total hovering around 44 to 45 points, so picking the right ones to attack from a DFS perspective will be key. I'm here to tell you that the Dolphins and Patriots game is not one of them. The Dolphins have been one of the slowest teams all year, ranking 31st in pace over expected. These teams look a lot different than when they played in Week 1, which featured just 27 total points, and Teddy Bridgewater will be starting for the Dolphins. New England's defense has been rather suffocating, too, with the second-best EPA per play allowed (-0.095) this season and the third-best pressure rate at 23.2%.
  • Action: fade the Patriots and Dolphins game in DFS

Team Pass Rates

• Despite Sam Darnold playing lights out the last several weeks, the Carolina Panthers are relying heavily on the run game. In their last six games, Carolina has four games with at least 180 rushing yards as a team, but those other two games have seen them combine for just 57 rushing yards. D'Onta Foreman has been the team's clear lead back over that span, with an average of 19.7 carries per game (55.7% of the team's carries). Volume is king in fantasy football, and claiming 70% of the team's carries inside the ten should give him more big days ahead.
  • Action: start D'Onta Foreman
• Over the last four weeks, the New York Giants are actually on the positive side of PROE. This is quite impressive, given their expected pass rate is above 65%, and they're still throwing more than that. However, there is no real distinction between Richie James, Isaiah Hodgins, and Darius Slayton, who are all averaging between 6 and 7.2 targets per game over that span, making it tough to trust them. New York will face a Colts team that opponents have a -3.1% PROE against this year, a bottom-12 rate.
  • Action: fade all Giants wide receivers

Running Back Usage

• That's it; I'm done with D'Andre Swift. In what should have been a game script in his favor (down double-digits early and often), Swift was given only nine opportunities on 56.1% snap share. He did run a route on 52.2% of dropbacks and earned five targets, but only catching one of them isn't going to get it done.
  • Action: bench D'Andre Swift
• Both Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White continue to hold value in the same backfield. Tampa Bay is currently second in high-value touches per game given to their running backs (behind only the Chargers), which is what makes both of them worthwhile starters. Since Fournette returned in Week 13, White and Fournette have been given double-digit opportunities in every game.
  • Action: start both Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White
• Against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson split the Miami backfield work almost evenly. Each of them had 11 opportunities, with Wilson getting the slight edge in snaps 30 to 26. However, neither of them totaled more than 50 scrimmage yards, and Week 17 will give them a tough matchup against the Patriots, the fifth-most-difficult matchup by our adjusted fantasy points allowed.
  • Action: bench both Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson
• Isiah Pacheco managers have to be frustrated, and I don't blame them. Since Clyde-Edwards Helaire landed on IR, Pacheco has been given 17.4 opportunities per game, along with four high-value touches per game. Unfortunately, he's found the end zone just twice, as Jerick McKinnon has siphoned all of the backfield's touchdowns (he has six in the last five games). That said, the workload and explosiveness of this offense give me hope that it'll turn around for Pacheco soon.
  • Action: start Isiah Pacheco as a flex option

Wide Receiver Usage

• Hunter Renfrow has now been back for two games, but he has yet to see a full-time role again, as he's run a route on just 58.5% and 65.7% of the team's dropbacks in those two games. This past week he saw seven targets for a healthy 23.3% target share, but Renfrow has more than four receptions in just one of his eight games played this year.
  • Action: fade Hunter Renfrow
• Keenan Allen has gotten a lot of the spotlight in Los Angeles with 14 targets in three of his last four games. Because of this, Mike Williams has just six, eight, and four targets in his last three games. However, after running a route on just 67.3% of the team's dropbacks in his first game back from injury (Week 14), Williams has been above 90% in back-to-back games. Fortunately, Williams doesn't need a ton of volume to have a big day, as his 14.8 yards per reception is 10th in the NFL this year.
  • Action: start Mike Williams
• After making a splash with seven touchdowns in four games, Christian Watson has become the Packers' WR1. Watson now has four straight games with a target share above 20%, but that has only come with an average of 6.8 targets per game, which says a lot about how much Green Bay wants to pass the ball. Watson has battled injuries all year and left Sunday's game with a hip injury. Allen Lazard was the beneficiary of Watson's exit as he earned a season-high 11 targets but had just 11 total targets in the previous three games combined.
  • Action: start Christian Watson if healthy, and start Allen Lazard if Watson is not healthy
• If you were to look at K.J. Osborn's cumulative stats over the last four weeks, you would see that he's third on the team in target share (16.1%), notably ahead of Adam Thielen, and averaging seven targets per game. But digging deeper, 16 of Osborn's 28 targets came in the come-from-behind victory against the Indianapolis Colts. Outside of that game, Osborn has recorded more than 50 yards in a game just once this season. Thielen is still running more routes and is a much more consistent option.
  • Action: fade K.J. Osborn

Tight End Usage

• I might be chasing points here, but in addition to scoring a touchdown in three straight games, Dawson Knox's usage has risen significantly. Knox has a team-leading 22.2% target share in that three-game span and has run a route on 79.4% of the team's dropbacks. These are both up from his season-long rates of a 10.9% target share and 66.9% routes rate. He'll face the Bengals in the game with the second-highest total on the week, making him a solid start in your championship matchup.
  • Action: start Dawson Knox
• Dallas Goedert was thrust back into his regular role in his first game back from injury, running a route on 90.2% of the team's dropbacks. Unfortunately, he only got three targets from Gardner Minshew, but he caught all three for 67 yards thanks to his 5.7 yards after catch per reception (something he has excelled at all year). With news that Jalen Hurts could return in Week 17, you're starting Goedert as an elite option if you've held onto him for this long.
  • Action: start Dallas Goedert