Divisional Round NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet From Ryan Noonan

Jan 19, 2023

Ryan Noonan's Top Divisional Round NFL Player Props

Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images

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You're probably tired of hearing me talk about it over the years. Between the weekly discussions on Move The Line and my weekly Lookahead Lines article, I'm constantly railing on our ability, or inability, to consistently beat a market as liquid as NFL sides. But player props? Player props are an entirely different story.

Our Discord users know my new passion is tackle and assist props, but sportsbooks had been posting them later and later each week, making it impossible to feature them here weekly. If you're looking for tackle and assist looks, I always preview a few of my favorites on our Move The Line Prop Drop show on Friday afternoons but make sure you're in Discord to get the official plays each week. The player prop tool is also pulling in my projections, an added bonus if you're looking to dip your toes in this market. More props from Connor Allen!

Divisional Round Player Prop Bets

Ja'Marr Chase Over 7.5 Receptions (+115, PointsBet)

I'm bullish on the Bengals in this spot, but I think this is a great look regardless of the game script. The Bengals are a pass-first offense, ranking second in pass rate over expectation (PROE) on the season at 8.4%.

Since Ja'Marr Chase returned from injury in Week 13, Cincinnati has led the league in PROE (11.4%). For context, the Buccaneers rank third in PROE over that same time frame (4%). I believe the offensive line issues will lead to even more passing, and while that might seem counterintuitive, we saw this shift late last season with the Bengals' play calling, leaving it in the hands of Joe Burrow pre-snap, and that's continued this season. The Bills rank third in rush defense DVOA, so a shift to a run-centric approach would be a massive shift in strategy and would differ from what we saw briefly back in Week 17 when these clubs gave us a brief taste of what's to come prior to the tragic events surrounding Damar Hamlin.

Chase has led the Bengals in target share every game since his return from injury in Week 13, seeing 34% of Burrow's attempts. That's translating into 13 targets per game, topping this in three straight and four of his past five. I like the Bengals here because the injury issues in Buffalo are forcing them to start third- and fourth-stringers. Skylar Thompson wasn't able to make them pay, but Joe Burrow surely can.

This is available across the board at a similar price if you don't have access to this book. I don't hate a Same-Game Parlay here with Chase receptions + Burrow completions.

Risk: 1 unit to win 1.15 units on PointsBet.