NBA Player Prop Bets: Walker Kessler Ranger

Jan 20, 2023

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After a wildly-entertaining four-game slate on Thursday, the NBA is back with an action-packed nine-game slate on Friday. There’s already been a massive amount of injury news released, including the Warriors resting the majority of their starters, so make sure to stay on your toes to avoid stale lines and exploit misprices while books rush to adjust. My three favorite player props for Friday’s slate are listed below.

Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process. With the shameless plug (that I am not explicitly paid for!), let’s get into the props for today.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (January 20, 2023)

Spencer Dinwiddie Over 16.5 Points (-124 at BetRivers)

Spencer Dinwiddie has done everything he can to help provide some ancillary offense to a Dallas team devoid of exactly that, and he has the opportunity to build on it even more on Friday with Christian Wood out.

In four games without Wood this season, Dinwiddie has averaged 26.0 points per game, shooting 53.1% on 16 shots per game while also attempting nine threes per game over that span. The elephant in the room, however, is whether or not he’ll be able to sustain this production alongside Luka Doncic. To help project that, I pulled the data that covers 554.7 minutes this season with both Doncic and Dinwiddie on the court, but Wood off the court.

In that sample size, Dinwiddie has posted a 20.7% usage rate while averaging 19.34 points per 36 minutes on 13.24 shot attempts, 7.33 coming from deep. It also helps that he gets a matchup with the Heat, a team that’s allowed the fourth-most threes (13.3) per game this season.

Given his recent form, the vacated opportunity with Wood’s absence, and the matchup, Dinwiddie is primed to sail over this prop on Friday.

Risk: 1.24 units on BetRivers to win 1 unit.